Best Bets for MLS Week 20 | OneFootball

The Designated Pundits break down their MLS bet slips each week LIVE on YouTube. You can catch the replay on YouTube, Spotify with video, and your favorite podcast app. In this article, I discuss a few plays which I think should be MLS Week 20 Best Bets.

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Match- Charlotte FC host the Columbus Crew

Pick- Charlotte Team Total Over 1.5 -102

MLS Matchday 20 starts where my Best Bets article starts, with Charlotte FC hosting the Columbus Crew. These two teams have the commonality that they are good at home and poor on the road.  Because of this, I favor Charlotte FC, on their team total, scoring over 1.5 goals. 

Charlotte is 5-3-2 at home with a +9 goal differential.  Their record should be better with that +9, and one thing I found was in two of those draws, Charlotte still scored 2 goals.  My model has Charlotte scoring 2 or more over 54% of the time, and as such, any plus money play on their total would work. 

Columbus allowed teams to score over 1.5 goals in 78% of their away matches, including 4 of their last 5 away from home.  Their additions, including Tapia, Mendez, and Giacone all help the offense, while the addition of Eric Bailly adds a solid defensive piece.  However, they will also be with a new left back after selling Max Arfsten to Middlesbrough, which adds more instability on defense. 

I think Charlotte should score two without much resistance. 

Match- Orlando City host FC Cincinnati

Pick- Cincinnati DC and Over 1.5 -123

While Orlando City started off poorly, losing 6 with only one draw and one win in their first 8 matches, they have been unpredictably volatile since. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has put together a split 5-2-2 run after starting just 2-3-4. In this form, Cincy beat Orlando 6-2 while beating Western Conference opponents SJ Quakes and Vancouver Whitecaps in style; they scored 4 times in each meeting. 

FC Cincinnati plays just one road game before a two game home stand over just 4 days next week. I think they can string together a little 9 point late summer special here, and adding the double chance to a small over on 1.5 goals gets us a -123 play. 

This is the highest projected total this week, with a 50.4% chance at going over 3.5 goals.  Adding a little gamescript parlay to a double chance, which covers over 66% of the match’s outcomes, is a safe way to play what could be a high scoring shootout. 

Match- Houston Dynamo host LA Galaxy

Pick- Under 2.5 +134 ½ Unit

Pick- Houston TT U1.5 +126 ½ Unit

According to my sportsmodel, the LA Galaxy at 41.8% chance to win is one of the most solid away teams of MLS Week 20.  I was shocked, and knew I wanted to get invested without taking a straight pro-Galaxy play. 

Part of the reason for the volatility here is the low goal total, which usually favors the away side.  My model has a 45.41% chance at going under 2.5 goals, with Houston under 1.5 goals (the ACTUAL best bet for this slate) happening over 62% of the time. 

Call me a chicken, but I will take the under on 2.5 goals instead.  This covers the possibility of Houston winning 2-0, while the +134 is better than the Houston team total under which sits at +126. 

Any movement in the line and I would happily jump on Houston Under 1.5 goals.  Make both official plays at a half unit. 

Match- SJ Earthquakes host St. Louis City

Pick- SJ Earthquakes +105

St. Louis City started weak, going 1-3-6 into the 2026 season, before finding inexplicable form and playing 6-2-0 and going lossless in their last 8. 

Then, they sold the heart and soul of their team, Marcel Hartel. 

St. Louis should still be competitive down the line, as they brought in Alexandru Matan and Carlo Holse to fill the huge hole.  However, I don’t think the time to shine is now. They should drop this road game; after all, their win streak does coincide with a heavy home match portion of their schedule.  They are 2-3-4 on the road despite their unbeaten streak. 

San Jose is on the opposite side of form than St. Louis.  They started 9-1 before a summer slump that brought them just 1 win, 3 draws, and 4 losses. What better way to get right than a home win against an opponent that just sold 30% of their goal contributions. 

Match- Austin FC host FC Dallas

Pick- Dallas DNB -126

In Copa Tejas matches, I favor Dallas.  This time, Austin catches Dallas in the middle of a 9 game away stretch.  Dallas has this one chance to claim 3 points before heading to RSL to play at altitude and then traveling across the continent to face Vancouver. They will want a win here. 

In these two Texas rivals’ last 6 matches, FC Dallas has a 4-1-1 record and a +5 goal differential.  While Austin has played well at home, they also have played 5 of their last 7 as road teams, preventing them from that midsummer dominance I had come to expect. 

I have Dallas with a 32.7% win chance here, while Austin has only a 35.9% chance to win.  Adding in the complexities of the schedule, as well as historic context, Dallas at -126 on the DNB provides coverage with some upside if the game does happen to fall their way. 

Match- Seattle Sounders host Vancouver Whitecaps

Pick- Vancouver Team Total Under 1.5 +106

When the Seattle Sounders host the Vancouver Whitecaps this weekend, a lot of handicappers will see the Whitecaps circling in the water like sharks.  However, despite a 6 game losing streak AND a weekly injury report that makes the Sounders supporters tear up, Seattle has remained competitive in many of those matches. In fact, Seattle has only lost 3 of their 6 games by a goal, and the other 3 of those games by 2 goals. 

Vancouver, by comparison, has been in some of the strangest games as of late.  They have been winners, losers, road warriors, and more.  They have played to high and low totals.  Being as Seattle can be stingy at home, I think they keep Vancouver out of the net and keep them to under 1.5 goals. 

Vancouver has scored 2 or more goals in just 50% of their road games this season, while Seattle has conceded 2 goals or more in just 35% of their total matches. We don’t need to get crazy here to assume Vancouver under 1.5 goals is a pure toss-up play. 

Let’s gamble on a cagey match here, one where Seattle could be hesitant and look for ANY result other than a loss.  Even a 0-0 draw might get Seattle moving in the right direction, so I see a defensive game this week.

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