Biggest match of the year: will a Bundesliga side go down today? | OneFootball

For fans of 1. FSV Mainz 05, this December feels strangely familiar. A glance at the standings might give supporters a double déjà vu. Twice in the past five years, the Rheinhessen were deeply mired in the relegation swamp at the same time. Twice it looked bleak. And twice, in the end, everything turned out differently. The question before the basement duel against FC St. Pauli is now: Will Mainz experience such a miracle for the third time, or will it be relegated to the second league this time?

The bare numbers initially speak clearly against it. After 14 matchdays, Mainz is at the bottom of the table with only seven points. This is the clear record of a relegation candidate. They are four points behind 16th place, six points from a non-relegation spot. And now, with St. Pauli, a direct competitor awaits, currently sitting in the relegation playoff spot.

If Mainz wins, they are back in the game. If Mainz loses, the gap threatens to grow to seven points. Currently, it is "only" seven points to a non-relegation spot because the competition from Augsburg also only drew. None of the teams from tenth place, all of which should be looking down, could win before the Christmas break on Friday or Saturday.  

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Mainz's Second-Half Experts

It's not a new feeling for Mainz to be knee-deep in the relegation battle just before Christmas. In 2020/21, they had only six points after 14 matchdays. In 2023/24, it was at least nine – but still only one victory. Yet, both times the remarkable turnaround followed. The common denominator was a coaching change and a second half of the season that was far above their average.

In 2020/21, Bo Svensson took over from the 15th matchday and collected a strong 33 points from 19 games. As twelfth, the Nullfünfer celebrated a confident survival. In 2023/24, Bo Henriksen came in only on the 22nd matchday, gathered 23 points in 13 matches, and led Mainz to 13th place. Twice a "Bo" from Denmark saved the Rheinhessen. Now the hopes rest on an "Urs" from Switzerland.

Back to Success with the "Basics"?

The mentioned Urs Fischer is very new in the position, but the first impressions are encouraging. In the surprising 2:2 against FC Bayern, Mainz presented itself as extremely solid and, above all, passionate. Exactly what Fischer has stood for years. At Union Berlin, he established one of the best defenses in the league over several seasons, even the best together with Bayern in 2022/23. That he can also stabilize Mainz shocks no one.

Fischer himself recently set the tone. "It's about stability, compactness, and the basics," he made clear. In the 2:0 victory against Samsunspor in the Conference League, it also became apparent that more than just damage control is possible. "That was our best performance of the season," said Nadiem Amiri, captain Silvan Widmer spoke of a "positive attitude" that must be carried forward. Despite being in 18th place, there is a slight tailwind in the southwest of the republic.

A Six-Point Game from the Textbook

However, Mainz will also need that. Because FC St. Pauli is also traveling to Rheinhessen with confidence. After the cup victory in Gladbach and the draw against Cologne, they secured their first Bundesliga win since the third matchday against Heidenheim last weekend. The Kiezkicker have proven that they can take on and win basement duels even when outnumbered.

In the Mewa Arena, it's all or nothing. Either the starting position in the relegation battle before the winter break is almost reset to zero – or Mainz heads into the holidays with a heavy burden.

To make up a seven-point deficit just to reach 16th place after the new year, they would need a point haul similar to what Svensson and Henriksen once achieved. So, another miracle would be needed. And since those don't come around often, a better starting position should definitely be played out against St. Pauli.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.

📸 KARL-JOSEF HILDENBRAND - AFP or licensors