Canada's High-Stakes Failure: Takeaways, Tactics in a Disappointing Concacaf Nations League Effort vs. Mexico | OneFootball

Engulfed in a sea of El Tri fans, Canada Soccer thought it might be their night.

After the USMNT crashed out to Panama, the Canadian men’s national team had the path right before them. A win against Mexico, and they’d face an opponent they’ve overcome several times and hoist a trophy for the first time in 25 years.

Alas, that moment won’t come.

As they have many times during their rise in international soccer, Canada fell short when the lights were the brightest. On Sunday, they’ll have to settle for a politically charged and frustrating third-place match against the USMNT.

“It was like a knife in the heart, to play well, to really do a lot of good things in the game but then just fall short of the goal,” said head coach Jesse Marsch. “That disappointment is hard to shake, and it is a missed opportunity. But again, I think in so many ways it’s still another step where we’re continuing to show our quality and our organization and intelligence. Now it’s just that little bit of savviness that the best teams have.”

When Will Canada Win in High Pressure Games?

Canada struggled to find their footing, adding another match to a long list of high-profile disappointments / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Despite all the hopes heading into the tournament, a swift defensive mistake early cost Canada, and they never found their way back into the game. After an error on a throw-in, Mexico’s Raúl Jimenez easily slotted past Dayne St. Clair, giving Mexico a 1-0 lead they never looked back.

It harkened back to times all too familiar for Canada: Faltering in overexcitement amid high-pressure moments rather than approaching with poise and experience.

Once that went in, there was no crawling back. The long balls began, and Cyle Larin didn’t have the pace to get onto them. By the 30th minute, FC Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies opted for solo efforts rather than patience.

Three years ago, when Canada returned to the World Cup for the first time in 36 years at Qatar 2022, they also failed to live up to the lofty expectations. Davies missed an early penalty in the opening match, and it all unfurled from there, finishing last in a group alongside Belgium, Croatia, and Morocco.

Canada has faltered in plenty of big moments, including Alphonso Davies' missed penalty in the Qatar 2022 World Cup opener against Belgium / Danielle Parhizkaran-Imagn Images

In the 2023 Concacaf Nations League Finals, as then head coach John Herdman stressed the federation's need to “get serious about winning a World Cup,” they floundered to a 2-0 loss against the USMNT.

And at the 2024 Copa América, they surrendered a late third-place game lead to Uruguay to leave without any hardware.

Losses like these aren’t new to Canada, but the leadup to Thursday’s match had every hope of shunning those demons just over one year away from the World Cup on home soil. It was a proving moment, and they failed to live up to it.

The Canadian squad is undoubtedly talented, but it thrives off an underdog role or low-pressure situations. When it comes to winning, they’ve not yet got the same edge as top international teams, a weight sitting on the shoulders of a relatively young roster, in addition to Marsch, who was out coached on the night.

“There’s just this cultural aspect of Mexican football where they kind of know how to go down easy, they know how to draw a yellow card or two, they know how to kind of handle certain moments,” the American coach added. “This is kind of the things that we’re still going to be learning a little bit and the savviness that we need to grow into.”

Canada's Impatience Costs Them

Alistair Johnston was one of three Canadian defenders to pick up yellow cards in the first half against Mexico / Alex Gallardo-Imagn Images

Since taking over the Canadian squad, Marsch has instilled an aggressive approach, regardless of opponent. That’s served the team well, getting them to the semifinals of the Copa América.

On Thursday, though, a quick, aggressive start bit them quickly, conceding quickly and not having the nerve to fight back.

In the lead-up to the first goal, Celtic FC right-back Alistair Johnston opted to take a quick throw rather than waiting for an available teammate. Mexico intercepted and got their opener moments later.

While 89 minutes to score should have been simple for a group with deep attacking talent, the impatience was evident throughout the match. It’s partially what led to incomplete attacks, like Ali Ahmed’s one successful cross on 10 attempts and Larin’s four shots off-target.

Consider Larin’s decision to shoot below, with Ahmed available to his right in space. While Larin often fancies himself for a shot and had the patience to take a few touches, his decision came too slow and left him without any space between the Mexican defenders.

Larin, shooting, was one of several Canadian players that struggled to make the right decision in the game's most important moments. / Courtesy of TSN/OneSoccer

Making the wrong decision in the moment was a critical mistake for Canada. It led them to put no shots on target from the run of play, even after bringing on additional strikers, Tani Oluwaseyi and Daniel Jebbison.

Canada can be a team that plays on the ball and thrives in pacey transition moments. However, Mexico has shown how to disrupt that by forcing fouls and profiting from its over-aggressiveness, and that's a must-balance factor before the World Cup, as disrupting the Canadian transition is the blueprint for any opponent.

Canada vs. USMNT: A Chance to Change the Sputtering Attack

Jonathan David played the No. 10 role for Canada, leaving but could he have a new strike partner against the USMNT? / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Heading into a third-place game is not what the team had planned, but it offers up some possibilities for Marsch to experiment with a deep group, especially in midfield and up top.

While Canada will approach the match wanting to win, it could come with significant change and potentially a new strike partnership, exploring new options in the role.

Jebbison got a brief cameo to make his Canadian debut but could start as more of an outright striker, bringing more pace and speed than Larin offers in the same role. That would allow Marsch to stick with David as a No. 10 or false nine, should the 4-2-3-1 be the preferred route going forward.

However, there could also be the potential of switching back to a flat front two in a 4-4-2, a solution that has gotten the best of David’s goal-scoring in the past. For a change there, a pacey option in Minnesota’s Oluwaseyi could be enticing, or a first look at Promise David, who has thrived in Belgium this season.

David and Larin's strike partnership has elevated Canada to the most immense heights in its soccer history. Yet it might be time for a change, given the depth in the position, Larin’s inconsistency and the need for younger players to play ahead of the summer's Gold Cup and friendlies against Ukraine and Cotê d'Ivoire.

The midfield pivot of Stephen Eustáquio and Ismaël Koné could also be switched up, given their struggles in creating chances. One player to look at in a potential pivot with Eustáquio would be Hajuduk Split midfielder Niko Sigur.

Marsch has lauded the 21-year-old as a silky midfielder who can spark transitions and chip in defensively while also being someone likely to play a significant role at the Gold Cup. Sigur recently showcased that ability with a stellar run and assist for his club in a 2-1 win over HNK Gorica on March 9.

It’s not the match Canada wanted to play on Sunday. However, they will still have a fiery test against a rival and a chance to further experiment with some of the new talents while potentially throwing in other adjustments.

“We’ll be excited for the U.S. game,” said Marsch. “There’s disappointment that we’re playing in the third-place game and not in the final. We’ll wrap our heads around the next two days for that match.”