Champions League Tips: Opta Supercomputer predictions and Arsenal fancied to go all the way | OneFootball

With six matchdays done and dusted, the UEFA Champions League is now on hold until late January, when the league stage will be completed.

The 36 teams have just two games remaining and the league stage table has really taken shape, with time running out for sides to secure a top-eight berth and automatic qualification for the last 16.

Arsenal were our pre-tournament tip to top the league stage and they remain firmly on course to do so, with a 3-0 victory at Club Brugge taking them to a perfect 18 points. They're 1/33 to finish top of the league stage table.

The Gunners' only real competition for top spot appears to be Bayern Munich at 14/1, who are three points adrift ahead of two very winnable fixtures, at home to Union Saint-Gilloise and away to PSV.

In third and fourth, respectively, Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City will fancy their chances of making the top eight, but with only two points separating sixth-placed Inter from Barcelona in 15th, there is still so much to play for.

And what of the teams struggling to make the cut? Juventus, Bayer Leverkusen and Napoli all appear at risk of dropping out of the top 24, while Jose Mourinho's Benfica are among the big names on the outside looking in.

With the competition at a pivotal stage, we have checked in with the Opta supercomputer, assessed the data and analysed the major talking points.

Arsenal, Bayern, PSG & Man City on track for top eight

Arsenal's 3-1 home win over Bayern on November 26 may just prove to be the decisive result in this league-stage campaign.

With a trip to Inter and a home game against bottom side Kairat Almaty remaining, the Gunners - who we tipped at 6/1 to top the standings before a ball was kicked - now only need four points to guarantee first place, regardless of their rivals' results.

This is just the fourth instance of an English team winning each of their first six games to open a UCL campaign, after Liverpool in 2021-22, Manchester City in 2023-24, and Liverpool again in 2024-25.

Going back to last season, Mikel Arteta's side have won 10 straight league-stage games. The only teams to ever achieve a longer such run in the UCL group or league phase are Bayern in November 2023 (17) and Liverpool in January 2025 (12).

As well as overcoming Bayern, Arsenal have also achieved convincing victories over Athletic Club (2-0) and Atletico Madrid (4-0), and it is no surprise their serene run through the league stage has had an impact on their outright price.

The Gunners are now 7/2 favourites to lift the trophy for the first time, and with a 22% probability, they are also favourites in the Opta supercomputer's tournament predictions.

Their chances of topping the league stage, meanwhile, are now rated at 95.3%, with Bayern given a 4.3% chance. No other team is given more than a 1% hope.

Arsenal's defensive record has put them in pole position, with Bayern wonderkid Lennart Karl the only player to net against them. The Gunners have faced 67 shots so far, with 16 of those being on target (only Man City have faced fewer with 13), but their expected goals against (xGA) figure of 3.7 is at least 1.2 fewer than any other team has given up, with Inter the next best at 4.9.

That equates to a mere 0.05 xG per shot for Arsenal's opponents in the competition.

For Bayern, meanwhile, attack has been the best form of defence. Only PSG and Borussia Dortmund (19 apiece) have bettered their 18 goals, while their 15.1 xG is the highest figure in the 2025/26 edition.

Following their 3-1 victory over Sporting CP, Bayern are unbeaten in 37 group/league-stage games at the Allianz Arena dating back to September 2013 (35 wins, two draws).

Bayern's campaign has been notable for the emergence of Karl, who, at the age of 17 years and 290 days, has become the youngest player in UCL history to score in three consecutive matches in the competition.

So Bayern being second favourites on the sportsbook at 9/2 to lift the trophy for the first time since doing so under Hansi Flick in 2019/20 makes sense. They should secure a top-two seed - the supercomputer assigns them a 62% chance of finishing second. But that defeat at the Emirates Stadium may just thwart their hopes of overtaking Arsenal.

Paris SG's goalless draw with Athletic on matchday six all but ended their hopes of topping the standings, but with 13 points already on the board, the holders are well on track to automatically reach the last 16, having needed to negotiate the knockout play-offs last time around.

Luis Enrique's team are 13/2 to defend the title, something no team other than Real Madrid has done since AC Milan won back-to-back European Cups in 1989 and 1990, with the supercomputer rating their tournament hopes at 14%.

A trip to Sporting CP and a home clash with Newcastle United are not the easiest remaining fixtures, but it looks highly unlikely that they will be forced too far down the standings, with the supercomputer assigning them an 83.6% chance of a top-eight finish.

Manchester City were another heavyweight that failed to reach the top eight last term, and that cost Pep Guardiola's men as they were dumped out of the play-offs by a Kylian Mbappe-assigned Real Madrid team. But after earning a measure of revenge over Los Blancos with a 2-1 comeback win at the Santiago Bernabeu, their top-eight hopes stand at a commanding 89.5% ahead of a trip to Bodo/Glimt and a home meeting with Galatasaray.

Having lost just six times in 69 UCL matches between October 2018 and October 2024 (49 wins, 14 draws), City lost six of 12 such games between November 2024 and November 2025.

However, City's only defeat in the 2025/26 edition came when resting players against Bayer Leverkusen, and their victory in Madrid should serve as a statement of their intent. They are 6/1 to win the tournament.

Interestingly, the supercomputer rates City as more likely than PSG to secure a top-eight berth, but it prefers the holders' chances of going all the way, with Guardiola's men given an 11% chance by our predictive model - flipping their respective positions in the sportsbook odds.

Atalanta are the surprise team sitting fifth in the standings after six matchdays. While they should not feel as confident as the leading four, the supercomputer assigns La Dea a 61.1% chance of making the top eight, with Athletic at home and Union SG away coming in their final two fixtures.

Despite being more likely than not to qualify, Atalanta are still just our system's 15th most likely tournament winners, which is also reflected in their sportsbook price of 66/1.

Real Madrid and Liverpool face battle amid chaotic seasons

There are then four teams locked together on 12 points, with Real Madrid and Liverpool among those facing a tough battle to make the top eight.

Madrid's defeat to City further intensified the pressure on Xabi Alonso, whose future at the Bernabeu is reportedly in major doubt just six months after he took the reins - as many question whether he will still be in post by the time this tournament resumes.

Since the start of last season, Madrid suffered as many defeats in the league stage of the UCL (five) as they did in each of their previous five group-stage campaigns between 2019/20 and 2023/24.

The City game was the only time in Madrid's history, meanwhile, that they scored first in a European Cup or UCL game but went into half-time behind, after doing so against Spartak Moscow in 1991.

Los Blancos have impressed in attack, ranking second in the competition for shots (115), joint-fourth for shots on target (47) and sixth for xG (13.6).

But their defensive downturn has been a major concern. Madrid only conceded once in their first three games in the 2025/26 UCL (2-1 versus Marseille, 5-0 versus Kairat, 1-0 versus Juventus) while giving up a total of 1.8 xGA.

But they have given up 6.8 xGA across their last three games - only Kairat, Bodo/Glimt, Copenhagen and Brugge have allowed opponents more high-quality chances in that time.

Bodo, Brugge and Kairat are also the only teams to give up more shots on target across the last three matchdays than Madrid (25), and though games against Liverpool and Man City were admittedly tough, they also struggled to hold off Olympiacos in a nervy 4-3 win.

The supercomputer rates Madrid's chances of a top-eight finish at a healthy 62.9%, though an away game against their former boss Mourinho and Benfica, then a home finale against Monaco, is far from a straightforward finish, particularly with those teams scrapping for play-off spots.

Madrid are 9/1 to lift the trophy on the sportsbook. While never wise to rule out Los Blancos in this competition, they are just the seventh-most likely winners with a 4% probability by the supercomputer, and the uncertainty surrounding Alonso's future combined with the chance of them dropping into the play-offs makes it difficult to back them with too much confidence.

Liverpool went into 2025/26 as joint favourites to lift the trophy alongside Barcelona, at 11/2. While the Reds have fared better in Europe than they have on the domestic front, their sportsbook price is now 9/1, with the supercomputer rating their hopes at 5%, making them sixth favourites just above Madrid.

On matchday six, Liverpool became the first visiting team to win at Inter in the UCL since Bayern in September 2022, ending the Nerazzurri's 18-game unbeaten run at San Siro in the competition.

The Reds did so without Mohamed Salah, who was left out of their squad after lashing out at boss Arne Slot in an explosive interview. Since the Egyptian arrived at Anfield in 2017, Liverpool have a 64.1% win rate when Salah starts in the UCL (47/78), which drops to 55.6% when he doesn't (5/9).

Salah - who is back in favour with Slot after coming on as a substitute against Brighton - is Liverpool's all-time leading Champions League scorer with 45 goals, though only one of those has come in five appearances in 2025/26. Salah is 66/1 to win the Golden Boot, but that looks a bet to avoid if he's still a Liverpool player when he returns from AFCON.

Liverpool have steadied the ship somewhat since a 4-1 defeat to PSV on matchday five - the most recent game that Salah started. They are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions (three wins, two draws) after losing nine of their previous 12 (three wins).

They must visit Marseille on matchday seven before finishing with a home game against Qarabag, with both of those sides currently on course to make the play-offs.

Liverpool's hopes of making the top eight stand at 60.7%, according to the supercomputer, but given the challenges his team have faced this term, Slot may just be relieved his team are not battling to make the top 24.

Inter Milan are an intriguing case, as they also have 12 points on the board but are only assigned a 35.2% chance of maintaining their top-eight spot.

That is due to a daunting finish, which sees Cristian Chivu's side host Arsenal and visit Dortmund, with their defeat to Liverpool representing a damaging blow.

Inter's hopes of reaching another final are rated at 7% by the supercomputer, with their chances of triumphing at 3%. They are 25/1 to go one better than last season's runners-up finish, though it looks increasingly likely that they will have to navigate the play-offs.

Atletico Madrid are a touch longer to win the trophy at 28/1, with the supercomputer giving them a 3% chance. However, Opta's predictive model is much more positive regarding their hopes of avoiding the play-offs, with kind final fixtures versus Galatasaray and Bodo/Glimt contributing to their 59.7% chance of a top-eight finish.

With those nine teams all boasting good claims to land in the top eight, that means some major sides are at serious risk of missing out.

Play-offs beckon for Spurs, Newcastle and Chelsea?

This is the first edition of the UCL to feature as many as six English teams, and the supercomputer does not foresee any of them suffering a league-stage exit.

However, Tottenham, Newcastle and Chelsea are all expected to feature in the play-offs.

Spurs are in the best position of those three sides, with 11 points on the board, following a routine 3-0 win over Slavia Prague.

Their chances of making the top eight now stand at 26%, according to the supercomputer - they can be backed at 9/4 - though they will be boosted dramatically if Thomas Frank's side can overcome Dortmund - who are also on 11 points and are assigned a 26.2% hope - on matchday seven. They then finish away at another Bundesliga side, Eintracht Frankfurt.

Newcastle and Chelsea are directly below Spurs in the standings, each with 10 points on the board after giving up late goals on MD6. The Magpies were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Leverkusen, while Chelsea suffered a 2-1 defeat to Atalanta.

The supercomputer does not see either side as being at risk of an early elimination, with neither failing to make the top 24 in more than 0.01% of league-stage simulations.

But Newcastle are given just a 10.9% chance of gatecrashing the top eight - they are 9/1 - with a daunting final fixture at PSG - which follows a home game against PSV - responsible for their low probability.

Chelsea (2/1)are assigned a higher 23.6% chance of making the top eight, with a very winnable home game against Pafos being followed by an away game against Napoli and former Blues boss Antonio Conte.

However, that trip to Naples could prove difficult for a Chelsea side that are now winless in five away UCL games (one draw, four losses). Enzo Maresca is just the third Blues boss to fail to win any of his first three away games in the competition, after Andre Villas-Boas and Luiz Felipe Scolari.

But Chelsea have scored in each of their last 28 European fixtures (including qualifiers), which is the longest outright scoring streak by any English team, surpassing a 27-match run by West Ham that ended in 1980.

A thumping 3-0 victory over Barcelona on MD5 showcased the Blues' potential, as did their surprise triumph at the FIFA Club World Cup. Chelsea might have to navigate the playoffs, but PSG proved last season that is still a path that can lead to glory. A price of 16/1 for them to lift the trophy could hold some appeal, with the supercomputer giving them a 3% chance as eighth favourites.

Spurs and Newcastle, meanwhile, are at 2% and 1% respectively.

Barcelona set to turn things around

Barcelona have not been at their all-conquering best in the UCL so far this season, but this might just be the right time to get on board with the Blaugrana.

Having been as short as 11/2 to lift the trophy before a ball was kicked, Barca's outright sportsbook price is now out to 17/2. But that still makes them fifth favourites and the supercomputer gives them a 7% chance of ending their 11-year wait for a sixth UCL title.

Flick's team are 15th in the standings after six matchdays, though a visit to Slavia Prague (who are 33rd) and a meeting with Copenhagen (24th) at Camp Nou present an opportunity for maximum points.

Barca's most likely final position, according to Opta's predictive model, is seventh (12.7% chance), and their hopes of making the top eight stand at 42.1%, higher than sixth-placed Inter.

The Blaugrana were handed one of the most difficult draws of any team in the 2025/26 UCL, and losing to PSG and Chelsea - the latter after Ronald Araujo was sent off - is no disgrace.

Barca have scored 14 goals in this season's competition, though their underlying attacking metrics suggest they are perhaps slightly fortunate to have done so. They have overperformed their total of 9.7 xG by +4.3, while ranking joint-15th for shots on target (30), with the likes of Union SG (34) and Copenhagen (32) registering more.

However, it should be remembered that Raphinha, who last season equalled the single-season UCL goal involvement record (21, joint with Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013/14), has only started two of their six games, with Robert Lewandowski only starting three and Lamine Yamal also missing one.

All three players started their 2-1 win over Eintracht on MD6, and if they are all fit and firing come late January, coupled with Ferran Torres and Marcus Rashford being in strong form, then Barca still have an excellent opportunity to climb the standings.

Juventus set for play-offs, while Napoli and Benfica's hopes on a knife-edge

An early exit for Barca is not viewed as a realistic prospect by the supercomputer, but might Serie A giants Juventus and Napoli be at risk?

Now under the management of Luciano Spalletti, Juventus are 17th with nine points, and their ambitions look to be limited to a play-off spot. They are assigned a 50.7% chance of finishing between 17th and 24th and being unseeded in the play-offs, following a 2-0 win over Pafos.

It has not been an easy campaign for the Bianconeri, who host Benfica and visit Monaco in their final two games. They only drop out of the top 24 in 2.1% of simulations at present, though a defeat to Mourinho's men on January 21 would make for a nervy finish.

While Juve are also struggling for form in Serie A, Napoli have started well in their bid to retain to Scudetto. But when it comes to the UCL, the Partenopei could be in danger.

Napoli have conceded 11 goals in the UCL this season - their joint-most in a single group/league-stage campaign in the competition (alongside 2017-18, also 11).

A 2-0 defeat at Benfica on matchday six made five successive away defeats in Europe for the first time in Napoli's history, and if they are to progress, they may just need to dig out a result on their travels.

Conte's men visit Copenhagen for their penultimate fixture before finishing at home to Chelsea, and anything less than three points in Denmark could make things tricky.

They are currently assigned a 21.9% chance of finishing lower than 24th and dropping out of Europe, with 60.7% of Opta's simulations seeing them finish between 17th and 24th.

Benfica's victory over Napoli came after a 2-0 success over a woeful Ajax side, and Mourinho's men could now be primed to complete a stunning turnaround.

The Lisbon giants started their campaign with four straight defeats, and at one stage, they were the only team in the competition to have struck the woodwork more often than they had scored, firing off 47 shots between their first and second goals in the 2025/26 edition.

Mourinho was in charge for three of those losses, matching his joint-longest UCL losing run with a single club.

But after their back-to-back wins, Benfica's hopes are back on a knife-edge. The Portuguese side - who we backed to compete for qualification in our ante-post preview - are assigned a 50.3% chance of making the play-offs by the supercomputer, with the remaining 49.7% of sims seeing them eliminated.

They visit Juventus, then host Madrid in their final two games, which should be edge-of-the-seat viewing.

Ajax finally got off the mark at the sixth time of asking, beating Qarabag 4-2 after becoming just the second Dutch team to go pointless through their opening five games of a UCL campaign (also Feyenoord in 2017/18).

But a stunning revival is tougher for them than it is for Benfica. That sole victory has done little for their play-off hopes, which stand at just 0.9% ahead of matches against Villarreal and Olympiacos.

Mbappe the rightful Golden Boot favourite, but look out for Gordon

Madrid's struggles are certainly nothing to do with Kylian Mbappe, who is now the clear favourite to win the Golden Boot at 5/6 after plundering nine goals in just five UCL matches, missing the Man City game due to a thigh injury.

Mbappe's haul includes four goals against Olympiacos and has come from an xG figure of 6.2. That is tied for the highest in the competition with Galatasaray's Victor Osimhen (6.2), who has six goals and is 16/1 for the Golden Boot.

Madrid have been largely reliant on Mbappe this season, as he has scored 25 of their 45 goals in all competitions - a 55.5% share.

Now, punters may usually avoid backing players for individual accolades when their team is struggling, but if Madrid were to drop into the play-offs it would mean two additional games for Mbappe to notch, providing further cause to get behind the France captain.

Indeed, neither of last season's Golden Boot co-winners, Serhou Guirassy and Raphinha, made it all the way to the final.

Erling Haaland - at 4/1 - and Harry Kane - at 7/1 - are next in the betting, though City and Bayern are both currently on course to avoid those additional fixtures.

Haaland is joint-second in the 2025/26 UCL scoring charts with six goals, and City's victory in Madrid was his 50th start in the competition. His 51 UCL goals are the most by any player in their first 50 starts in the tournament.

Like Mbappe, Haaland has impressively overperformed his underlying figures, netting his six goals from 4.6 xG, and the same can be said of Kane, who has scored five times from 4.0 xG.

Kane has 24 goals in 30 UCL appearances for Bayern, the joint-most by any player since he signed for the club (level with Mbappe), but he has now gone three games without a goal in the competition, just the third time he has done so since leaving Spurs.

A couple of England internationals could make for excellent each-way punts, with Betfair paying 1/3 odds for whoever finishes second in the goal charts.

Marcus Rashford has four goals to his name and is 25/1, while Anthony Gordon - with five - comes in at 30/1.

Of that duo, Gordon could actually be the pick with more upside. Rashford has played more of a creative role for Barca, registering his eighth assist of the season in all competitions against Eintracht, with only Arda Guler and Yamal (nine) boasting more among LaLiga players.

Rashford also faces stern competition for a starting berth, whereas Gordon - who is also more likely to go through the play-offs - has been Newcastle's talisman.

Only Mbappe (nine goals) has more goal involvements than Gordon (seven - five goals, two assists) in the UCL this season, and he is just the second Newcastle player to score five or more goals in a single season in the UCL, after Alan Shearer in 2002-03 (six).

For punters looking for an even more speculative option, Marseille's Igor Paixao has four goals already and is available at 66/1. His team-mate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is on three goals and is 100/1, having also been in red-hot form in Ligue 1.

Serhou Guirassy is 50/1, having already netted three times, and the Dortmund striker tied Raphinha at the top of the charts last season, with 13 goals. BVB's tough finale - against Spurs and Inter - makes a play-off berth possible, potentially giving the 29-year-old a chance to add to his tally.

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