Chelsea v Arsenal: Opta say back 52/1 Bet Builder on Sunday | OneFootball

English Premier League

Opta are recommending a 52/1 Bet Builder for Chelsea v Arsenal

It's fourth against fifth in the Premier League as Chelsea host Arsenal on Sunday and Opta are recommending a Bet Builder at 52/1 that involves the Blues getting the better of their London rivals...

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Here we have two teams meeting at very different junctures in their respective seasons.

While Arsenal teeter on the precipice of a crisis, Chelsea are making great progress on their objective of closing the gap from last season between themselves and the top of the table.

With the pair meeting at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, which way will it go? Here is what the Opta data is saying.

Arsenal lack firepower

You can't escape the fact that this is one of the best times to play Arsenal in the last two seasons.

Following their 1-0 defeat to Inter Milan in the Champions League in midweek, they have lost back-to-back matches for the first time this season. They have also lost three of their last six in all competitions, which is as many defeats as in their previous 32.

Their two victories in that sequence, meanwhile, came against Shakhtar and Preston in the Champions League and EFL Cup respectively, meaning that Arsenal have taken just one point from their last three Premier League matches. That sequence of results has seen Mikel Arteta's side slip to fifth in the table, seven points behind leaders Liverpool and level with Chelsea, who are above them on goal difference.

The issue with the Gunners is their away form, with three defeats in four and that victory over Preston last month their only win on the road in six. The last time they lost three successive away games was in December 2021, a season in which they missed out on the top four.

With all of the above considered, the 19/20 about Chelsea draw no bet looks generous.

One reason behind Arsenal's recent funk is that they have put themselves on the backfoot too often, conceding first in four of their last six league games. They have also conceded the opener in four of their previous five away matches in all competitions, including each of their last three in the league.

With three of those opening goals having come in the first half, it is worth looking at Chelsea to win the first half of this one at 9/4.

That is a serious problem when you consider that the Gunners have struggled for creativity and firepower since Martin Odegaard was injured on international duty with Norway in September.

They have netted just three away league goals since his last domestic appearance on August 31 and haven't been threatening a great deal either, failing to score in four of their last six on the road in all competitions.

Despite controlling large parts of the match, Arsenal had just one shot on target in their 1-0 defeat away to Newcastle last weekend.

Their travelling struggles last weekend tell a story of their season, having scored the equal third-fewest away goals (five) of any team in the Premier League with the second-lowest away xG (4.02). Only Brentford (35) have had fewer shots in away games than the 37 Arsenal have managed so far.

Given that Arsenal rank second for shots taken at home (102) and third for home xG (11.73) this season, it is not hard to see where the problem lies. It is also notable that there has been a significant drop-off since last season in which Arsenal averaged 15.6 shots and 2.2 goals per away game compared to 7.4 shots and one goal per game currently.

While the above data needs to come with the caveat that Arsenal have had first-half red cards at Manchester City and Bournemouth, inhibiting their attacking play, it still doesn't paint a good picture.

Odegaard did return to first-team action on Wednesday evening, coming off the bench in stoppage time for a cameo against Inter. But after two months out of action and having only returned to first-team training earlier in the week, it is doubtful whether he will start this weekend or be in the right shape to make his usual impact.

As a result of the above, BTTS: No looks tasty at 29/20.

Chelsea might need a jump-start

Before everyone rushes to lump on Chelsea, it is worth pointing out that they could also be without man of the moment Cole Palmer.

Manager Enzo Maresca has confirmed that Palmer is carrying an injury that he picked up in their 1-1 draw with Manchester United last weekend and is doubtful for the Arsenal game.

Given that the 22-year-old has directly contributed to 60% of Chelsea's 20 league goals this season (seven goals, five assists) and created more open-play chances (24) than anyone else in the league, that's a fair hit to take. With the possibility that neither side will be at their attacking best, under 2.5 goals looks good at 23/20.

But Maresca's side have looked in better nick than their opponents recently, winning five and drawing two of their last seven matches in all competitions at Stamford Bridge. Only leaders Liverpool and second-placed Manchester City have beaten Chelsea in the league this season.

Crucially, they have another attacker in decent form as well. Nicolas Jackson has scored six league goals from the second-highest individual xG in the Premier League (6.12), which suggests that he is consistently getting good opportunities to continue his run of form.

Jackson has thrived against rival clubs as well. Since signing for Chelsea ahead of the 2023-24 season, he has been involved in more London derby goals (12) than any other Premier League player, scoring 10 times and adding two assists in his last nine such appearances.

The Senegalese striker has opened the scoring on four occasions this season, while five of his goals have come inside the first half of matches. He is available at 12/5 to score the opener again on Sunday.

Expect Chelsea cards

It is also worth mentioning that Jackson has already picked up five yellow cards in all competitions this season, including four in the Premier League. He is priced at 10/11 to score or be carded, while he is 9/4 just to be carded.

Jackson's card total is the equal fourth-most in the Premier League, while Chelsea players Wesley Fofana (six) and Marc Cucurella (five) occupy the top three. All three of those players have contributed to the 38 yellow cards that Chelsea players have been issued with - at least five more than any other team.

Arsenal, in comparison, have had 24 bookings so far this season - just five teams have picked up fewer. Backing Chelsea to pick up more cards than their opposition is a simple one at 6/5.

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