City just do, Arsenal think: Inside the psychology of the Premier League title race | OneFootball

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Despite the scenes of celebration on the pitch, and the fact they were staying top of the league, the Arsenal dressing room had nowhere near the same feel of victory after the late 2–1 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers. You might have thought the leaders had lost. Arteta told the media the performance was way below the standards required, but he had already said it in far stronger terms to the players.

You can understand the concern, and there is reason for Arsenal to be worried now. Their performances have abruptly dropped – quite badly – while Manchester City have returned to imperious form.

Guardiola might be playing a new way, but the 3–0 win over Crystal Palace had an old feel. It was City constantly keeping the opposition at bay, always looking just out of reach. Oliver Glasner’s team, of course, gave Guardiola problems, but that was always going to matter less when Erling Haaland simply takes his chances.

One ominous new development for everyone else is that Phil Foden is scoring alongside the Norwegian, as City have finally added more goals from other angles.

And, following on from the even more convincing win over Real Madrid, there is a sense of Guardiola’s side being on track – of building momentum.

In that regard, it did not feel a coincidence that Arteta spoke about the need to get 90 points on the eve of the Wolves game.

That would be one more than the 89 Arsenal got in 2023–24, when they were just pipped by City. It is hard not to feel Arteta is now priming himself for a similar challenge, and he needs to ensure his team are in the right frame of mind.

This is also what is so striking about City, and why you can feel a change in the title race as we reach the psychological landmark of the Christmas spell.

City just do. Arsenal seem to think a lot about what they do. That angst that surrounds the team in certain moments has returned with force, and you could really feel it at the end of the Wolves game.

The greater concern is that it paralleled the defeat to Aston Villa. For a team that looked the best in Europe as they comprehensively beat Bayern Munich just two weeks ago, Arsenal were unusually panicky as they withdrew into their own box late on.

Sources within the club insist a lot of it is down to the William Saliba–Gabriel partnership being temporarily disrupted by injury. The duo allow the team to play much higher, since they just know how it moves, but they also bring assurance.

Arsenal may easily recover their recent verve when they have that backline for 27 December against Brighton, but they still have a few more tests. Above all, the next week may be a test of nerve. And for all that the angst of the crowd has occasionally felt like it has influenced performance at Arsenal, other Premier League coaches wonder about the manager in that regard. They feel Arteta can get too emotional on the sideline.

Guardiola, in contrast to both the Arsenal manager and his own animated nature last season, now seems quite serene. It’s like he’s really enjoying himself. He was even laughing after his team conceded four at Fulham, although that mood was greatly helped by his own side scoring five.

That match showed there is still a certain vulnerability to City that can yet be exposed.

There is then the great potential variable of the charges. It’s just that we’ve been talking about that for so long, with no indication of when it’s actually going to drop, that it almost feels like there’s now nothing to say until it happens.

It might yet be next season, with the way things have been going. City insist on their innocence and, like everyone else, they just have to get on with it.

And that is itself key in a different way. One of the greatest challenges in actually winning the title is getting to a point where persistently winning just feels businesslike. Not routine, since teams have to have that extra focus, but like it’s a constant consequence of good work.

Arsenal’s victory over Wolves did not feel like that. Quite the opposite. They got away with it.

A mere three points further back, then, are Villa. A club Premier League record of six successive wins felt much more than businesslike. It’s like there’s a surge going through the team, best seen in Ollie Watkins and the excellent Morgan Rogers. Giddy talk of a title challenge is already rising.

That still feels exactly that, though – giddy talk. Villa and Watkins have hit one of those spells of form where everything falls right – not least Rogers’s finish against West Ham United.

These spells are difficult to sustain in any case, but they’re going to be particularly difficult to sustain with a small squad that is in European competition.

This isn’t to say Villa can’t do it, of course. They’re already massively over-performing. It’s just a considerable challenge.

Once the surge ends, they have to get into that businesslike mindset too. That’s what really differentiates these title challenges when they get close. It’s about getting through it. That’s what Arteta is realising now. That’s what Guardiola already knows.

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