Corinthians unlikely to go down, Sul-Americana spot likely

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Central do Timão

·25 November 2025

Corinthians unlikely to go down, Sul-Americana spot likely

By Vinícios Cotrim | Central do Timão Editorial Team

With the 3-0 defeat to Cruzeiro in the 35th round of the Brasileirão, Corinthians now has one of the highest probabilities of qualifying for next year's Copa Sudamericana. In addition, there is a small chance of relegation, since Timão’s points total can still be matched by a club from the relegation zone (Z4).

According to the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Timão’s biggest chance in this Brasileirão is a spot in the 2026 Copa Sudamericana. There is a 94.6% probability of competing in the tournament next year. It’s worth mentioning that, if they win the Copa do Brasil, a spot in the Libertadores is guaranteed.

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Photo: Rodrigo Coca/Ag. Corinthians

However, the People’s Team can still reach the Libertadores through the league table. If the Copa do Brasil title does not happen, Fluminense and Cruzeiro are in the G7, opening up another spot if they become champions. In this case, Corinthians can still reach eighth place, currently held by São Paulo with 48 points—three more than Corinthians.

As for relegation, excluding clubs that no longer have any chance of being relegated, Corinthians is the club with the lowest probability. According to the university, there is only a 0.0031% chance of dropping to the second national division. There is a seven-point gap to the Z4, with nine points still up for grabs.

Corinthians’ next match is on Sunday (30th), against Botafogo, in the 36th round of the Brasileirão. The match will be held at Neo Química Arena, with Timão looking to get back to winning ways and continue fighting for a spot in the upper part of the table.

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