Current Premier League table based on Expected Points – A very different story | OneFootball

The Premier League table now shaping up after four rounds of matches played.

However, it doesn’t necessarily tell the full story.

With Expected Points (xP), it is a way to measure how many points a team should have earned, based on the chances they created and gave away during a match.

To do this, it uses Expected Goals (xG) stats, which look at every shot and gives it a score based on how likely it was to result in a goal. It considers things like how far the shot was from goal, the angle of the shot and what type of shot it was

So the Premier League tables show how many matches a team has won, drawn, or lost.

It doesn’t though always show how well a team is actually playing.

A team might win a game by luck, or lose despite playing well. That’s where Expected Points (xP) come in.

This helps show the difference between results and real performance.

These tables below are from Understat and this first one shows the 2024/25 final Premier League table based on Expected Points:

If you look to the far left, the number before each club is where they actually finished in the final 2024/25 Premier League table. Whilst the table above has each club placed according to their Expected Points over the entirety of last season.

As you can see, most clubs are roughly in similar places using both measurements.

However, the Expected Points totals strongly show that Bournemouth were very unlucky and/or didn’t take advantage of how well they played throughout last season. The Cherries actually finishing ninth last season but the Expected Points showing their performances could and should have seen them finish third and be in the Champions League this season.

Chelsea the big beneficiaries, as they finished fourth in the actual Premier League table but their performances suggesting sixth place should have been where they ended up. For Newcastle United, it was fifth place in both tables. Forest one of the big stand outs, ending up 7th last season but based on Expected Points it could/should have been 14th.

So what about this new season?

After four rounds of matches, this is how the 2025/26 Premier League table looks on this Saturday (20 September 2025) morning:

After four rounds of matches, this is the 2025/26 Premier League table based on Expected Points:

As you can see, some big stand outs.

Bournemouth deserve, based on Expected Points, to be second instead of fourth. Carrying on their excellent levels of performance from last season.

However, of most interest, is that Newcastle United are rated as fourth when based on how they have played overall this season in Premier League matches, rather than tenth. Which matches what we have seen with our own eyes. United should have beaten Villa and were also the better team against Liverpool, with both eleven AND ten men.

Speaking of which, in contrast, Liverpool very fortunate to be top of the actual Premier League table, when their performances point to then only deserving to be seventh based on Expected Points.

The scousers as usual getting plenty of help from match officials and benefiting from any number of very late goals.

Second best in the game against Bournemouth and lucky to be drawing 2-2 at home, Liverpool taking the lead on 88 minutes to go on and win their opening game. Getting the winner against 10 men Newcastle in the tenth minute of added time. Poor against Arsenal but getting the win via an excellent free-kick from distance. Then last weekend a winner in added time against the ten men of Burnley (not to mention Liverpool winning in midweek against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League with an added time winner!).

For Newcastle United, a case of that despite all the factors that have gone against Eddie Howe in his preparations for the season and indeed since the season kicked off, this NUFC team have been playing well generally and deserved more points than they have banked so far. A case of luck needing to even out a bit and for the Newcastle players to improve their finishing, to start turning the positive performances into more points.