Does a Liverpool move for Crystal Palace and England defender Marc Guehi make sense? | OneFootball

With the European Championship and the Copa America now over, the transfer market could well explode into life.

Liverpool sporting director Richard Hughes said as much in his first press conference for the club.

“It’s hard to say and speak industry-wide. I think naturally when there are major competitions during the summer – a World Cup, a European Championship and in this case a Copa America and the Olympics as well, so there’s a lot of football being played – naturally the attention is going to be there. After the flurry that there was in June, I think it will calm down a little bit in July.

"When August starts and coaches have had more time to work with players and opinions will be more set, you may see a situation where there is a bit of a hurry to get things done and make sure everyone's squad is in order.

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"I don't think this summer will be any different. Who knows what will transpire economically, it is hard to say, that was probably the reason for June. I would say a quiet July and a crescendo in August awaits us all."

We’ll see teams scramble to get some deals over the line ASAP before the month of June comes to an end, just as Manchester United have with Joshua Zirkzee. Liverpool could follow suit. According to Fabrizio Romano, the Reds are interested in Crystal Palace centre-back Marc Guehi.

The England centre-back impressed at the Euros and is reportedly on the radar of a number of Premier League sides.

Liverpool like Guehi says Romano

During his Playback Live Show, Romano disclosed: "Marc Guehi has been linked with Liverpool. I can tell you that Liverpool have been scouting the player for a long time. He's a player they like, for sure."

He went on to explain: "At the moment [...] the situation is quiet because of the Euros. After the Euros, we will see the appreciation of Liverpool for the player."

This isn’t the first time the Reds have been linked with the 24-year-old.

Liverpool do need defensive reinforcements following Joel Matip’s departure and they appear to have lost out in the race to sign Lenny Yoro, if the latest reports are to be believed. So, does a move for Guehi make sense?

At a glance, maybe.

Despite his young years, he has a lot of Premier League experience and this is something the Reds tend to favour when profiling players. He’s already got three years of first-team football under his belt for the Eagles.

Guehi's contract situation

The fact he only has two years remaining on his current deal makes him an even more interesting proposition. Palace will still want big money for him but they aren’t in a position of strength. The longer there is uncertainty over his long-term future, the less money they can bank from the sale of the centre-back. You could even class Guehi as an opportunistic target.

Guehi is also represented by the same agency as Anthony Gordon. This might not mean much now but when Michael Edwards was first at the club, Liverpool made a habit out of doing a lot of business with the same agencies. It made negotiations a lot easier.

Could Hughes be adopting a similar tactic this summer? Who knows.

The 6ft defender is usually fairly reliable. He racked up 73 Premier League starts across his first two campaigns with Crystal Palace. A knee issue limited his involvement last term but that appears to be an exception rather than the norm.

So, plenty of boxes are ticked there.

Why Guehi is difficult to assess

When looking at his data, this is when it becomes a little more difficult to assess Guehi. Let me explain why.

It is, at times, impossible to read into defensive stats because they are, more often than not, tied to how busy a player is rather than how good they are. If a player is turning out for a team at the lower end of the table, they will likely be busier than someone in a top-four battle.

As a result, their defensive numbers, such as tackles, interceptions, blocks and clearances, are usually higher. It isn’t reflective of quality though. Furthermore, if they’re playing for a passive team that look to hit teams on the break, their on-ball actions will be down.

They won’t be tasked with carrying the ball into midfield. They won’t be seeing a lot of the ball. It doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t play that role, it just highlights the fact they haven’t been allowed to play it.

Alternatively, a low defensive block might mean defenders aren’t actually called upon. So their individual numbers won’t be great at all and that is what they are judged on. Unless you have the perfect environment whereby the player is part of a team with a similar system to yours, looking at the data is a flawed way to judge a defender.

Guehi has one big red flag

You can’t really take anything away from Guehi’s defensive numbers. His passing volume is decent enough, he’s averaging almost 60 per 90 with an 87% success rate. So he’s used to seeing a decent amount of the ball, scaling up shouldn’t be an issue. He can switch the ball well too but we’re yet to really see what he’s truly capable of while playing for Crystal Palace and England respectively.

In the air though, he’s a big red flag and I’m not sure how this is going to be overlooked. Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool liked dominant centre-backs. We’re yet to know what Arne Slot wants from his centre-backs but he’s not going to want someone who is weak in the air, is he? Guehi doesn’t involve himself in many aerial duels, which in itself is an issue, and then when he does, he’s winning just a little over half. That would be a huge concern.

If he’s paired with a dominant partner, maybe it would balance out. For now, though, the link, from a playing perspective, appears to be an odd one.

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