📊 Doing the maths, who Argentina could face in the round of 32

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·23 June 2026

📊 Doing the maths, who Argentina could face in the round of 32

The group stage is over and La Albiceleste is already in the round of 32... well, technically the round of 16, because this World Cup is a whole new headache.

With qualification already in the bag, the coaching staff and the 46 million head coaches that we Argentines are have already started crunching numbers.

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The group of death will be decided in a movie-like ending, and La Albiceleste’s opponent will come out of a four-way battle between Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde.

The math is on fire and the range of possibilities is wild. Grab your notebook, your mate, and take a look at what needs to happen to see who we’ll be facing.

🇪🇸 Option 1: Spain

For Argentina to face the European champions, the group has to break in favor of the charrúas, and the Asians need to do us a favor. Argentina plays Spain if:

Uruguay beat Spain and, on the other field, Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia draw.
Uruguay beat Spain and Saudi Arabia steamroll Cape Verde.

🇺🇾 Option 2: Uruguay

If we want a high-tension match, we could get the Río de la Plata derby. A clash with La Celeste would come together under two scenarios full of goal-difference trickery:

Uruguay and Cape Verde both win their matches, but the overall goal difference ends up favoring the Africans (leaving the Uruguayans in second place).
Uruguay draw and Cape Verde also draw, but the Africans do us the favor of finishing first thanks to having scored more goals than the charrúas.

🇸🇦 Option 3: Saudi Arabia

The ghost of the Qatar opener. For this rematch-flavored showdown to happen, Saudi Arabia need to win no matter what and hope Spain pick up points:

Uruguay and Spain play out a draw, while Saudi Arabia beat Cape Verde.
Spain beat Uruguay and Saudi Arabia do their job and beat Cape Verde.

🇨🇻 Option 4: Cape Verde (The most likely one)

The tournament’s big surprise is, mathematically, the opponent with the best odds of running into the Scaloneta. There are five possible combinations for us to end up traveling into the unknown:

Uruguay beat Spain and Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia, but goal difference favors the Uruguayans.
Uruguay and Spain draw, and Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia.
Everyone draws: Uruguay with Spain and Cape Verde with Saudi Arabia, but Uruguay finish on top on goals scored.
Spain beat Uruguay and Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia.
Spain beat Uruguay and Cape Verde salvage a draw against Saudi Arabia.

To sum it up: Who’s coming?

If you look at the board, Cape Verde have the most favorable combinations to end up in our path. We could get the mystique of beating a powerhouse like Spain, total tension against Saudi Arabia, or the age-old derby with Uruguay, which is the toughest option because it depends on the goal balance.

Get the defibrillators ready and may God help us, because a heart-stopping finish is coming!

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇪🇸 here.

📸 Francois Nel - 2026 Getty Images