Easter Monday League 1 & 2 Tips: Harris hopes alive in 11/1 and 8/1 trebles | OneFootball

League One

Leg 1: Crawley Town v Exeter City, Monday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 9/10

We opposed Exeter in the column on Friday in a toothless 0-0 with Burton, with the Brewers playing classic "dig in" football with just one chance and 26% of the ball and an xG output of just 0.19, so my hopes backing Burton to nick a result were dashed.

The fact that Exeter couldn't break them down doesn't put me in a mad rush to want to back them here, and likewise Crawley - who after the initial Scott Lindsey burst haven't won in four. While Town have had a few goal crazy games of late, they did earn a 0-0 against Birmingham on Friday and the best they can hope for here is another scrap.

Since joining the Football League, Crawley have played six home matches on Easter Monday, winning two, losing two and drawing two, so that's too inconsistent, and I prefer a go at the Unders here with Exeter's home xG of just 1.17.

KEY OPTA STAT: Exeter have won just one of their last five league games played on Easter Monday (D2 L2), though that sole victory did come last season vs Cheltenham Town (2-1).

Leg 2: Burton Albion v Birmingham City, Monday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 9/10

Birmingham's work here is done. They missed several key chances on Friday in the 0-0 with Crawley, an indication perhaps their full throttle season has now eased off with the trophy unveiling as title winners pencilled in for next weekend.

"I think our general play, a lot of it was there today. That finishing touch obviously wasn't, but I've just reminded the players that, yes, we've won the league and everything but from my point of view I really want to see them for these next few games, make sure that there's still that intensity to our game," said Chris Davies, but it's hard to replicate the intensity after a full season.

Burton will have to dig in here again and hope for the best, and clearly of Birmingham were on the 'A' game, it's a mismatch, but they need the points in the bid for survival, as Bristol Rovers earned a point at Wrexham to level on 43 each at the foot of the table and backing them for a draw might not be the worst idea, if Friday's performance is anything to go on.

Blues have failed to win either of their prior two away league games against Burton Albion (D1 L1), in their EFL history they've only ever faced Leeds City (7), Darwen (4), Northampton (3) New Brighton (3) and Wrexham (3) more times away from home without ever winning.

Plus we've got Burton's home xG of just 1.14 and they still have something to play for.

KEY OPTA STAT: Burton have lost each of their last two league games played on Easter Monday, as many as across their prior 10 matches on this day combined (W4 D4).

Leg 3: Cambridge United v Leyton Orient, Monday 15:00: Back Cambridge to win @ [21/10

Orient are becoming as mystifying as Peterborough - a 26-minute goal blitz on Friday with a 4-3 comeback win against Barnsley put them into the playoff spots.

Now, the question is can they hold their nerve on 69 points as earlier in the season they got themselves into contention and then went on a poor run.

It's now three wins on the spin for the O's - scoring 10 goals in those three matches, but I am going to chance Cambridge in their bid for survival following their against-all-odds win at Huddersfield on Friday. They produced a classic counter attack win against all the possession and chances and came away with a 2-1 win.

"We know we're still in a real tough moment and we've only got three games to go. We've got a huge game on Monday, a quick turnaround, and have to be ready for that, but we've given ourselves a chance," said Neil Harris post-Friday, and with five points from safety, this is pretty much a do or die game.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge have lost just one of their last seven league games played on Easter Monday (W3 D3), winning on this day last year 3-1 against Wigan Athletic.

League Two

Leg 1: Port Vale v Grimsby Town, Monday 15:00: Back Port Vale @ 19/20

We really ought to be counting that 28/1 treble from Friday's column in League Two. Having done the difficult part in tipping two draws with the MK Dons and Gillingham matches both ending stalemates, Port Vale, the in-form team and leaders, were beaten at Carlisle 3-2 in a result that nobody foresaw.

The treble hopes dashed from an unlikely source - as Carlisle never score three.

It's a case of sticking with a good side, who surely cannot fluff their lines again having beaten Walsall and Bradford in a run prior to Friday.

Grimsby were routed at home by Swindon 0-4, in another unpredictable result, and while a technical side that can look easy on the eye, they came up short again in the face of a but of physicality.

David Artell said his Grimsby players didn't turn up on Friday, and Port Vale have to win this, simple as that with Doncaster a point behind in second.

KEY OPTA STAT: Grimsby Town have won two of their last three away league games against Port Vale (L1), as many victories as across their prior eight matches against this opponent on the road (D1 L5).

Leg 2: Notts County v Cheltenham Town, Monday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 11/10

County are down to sixth in the table and are without a win in three now, a run at the wrong time for Stuart Maynard's team.

They have been far from convincing at home of late with with the televised 0-0 against Crewe last month - and they also lost to Chesterfield and Barrow in March too.

At times, the Magpies have struggled to break teams down for all their attacking talent although they earned a good point on Thursday at Bradford thanks to David McGoldrick.

Cheltenham have drawn six on the road this term and aren't known for goals on the road either with an xG of just 1.12. They might be able to frustrate the hosts here - something they couldn't do earlier in the season when they were thumped 3-5 by County at Whaddon Road.

KEY OPTA STAT: Notts County have failed to win any of their last six Football League games played on Easter Monday (D4 L2), drawing at home 3-3 with MK Dons on this day last season.

Leg 3: Barrow v Tranmere Rovers, Monday 15:00: Back Barrow @ 13/10

Tranmere's attack on the road is one of the weakest in the division with just 17 scored away from Prenton Park all season - and they've conceded a massive 42 away.

Andy Whing's Barrow are unbeaten in four and have enjoyed some good results at Holker Street of late, none more so than their 2-0 win against promotion-chasing Walsall. Whing beat his best mate Mat Sadler in that.

At the time, Walsall were in terrible form, but Barrow were just one defeat in nine and played expertly in soaking up the pressure. Indeed, when Barrow score, they have looked good sitting back and defending, and Walsall didn't muster a single shot on target.

It's dangerous to take that game in sole isolation, as Tranmere have improved since Nigel Adkins left the club in February and since have lost just twice.

But Barrow can look good on their own patch with 10 Holker Street wins.