England route to the Euro 2024 final: Three Lions avoid Netherlands in last 16 | OneFootball

The Three Lions entered Euro 2024 as favourites having finished qualifying unbeaten in Group C. They were placed in Euro 2024 Group C alongside Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia.

England started the group with a nervy 1-0 win over Serbia and had the chance to qualify top after two games. However, they drew with Denmark and Slovenia, finishing the group stage with the third-lowest xG (2.19) ahead of only Serbia (2.11) and Scotland (0.95), both of whom were knocked out.

So, who could Southgate’s men take on if they progress through Euro 2024 knock-out stage?

England’s potential route to Euro 2024 final

England’s Group C results

1-0 vs Serbia – Not a scintillating performance from The Three Lions,  but very much job done in Gelsenkirchen. An early goal from Jude Bellingham proved enough in a 1-0 victory and, in truth, England were never really troubled. There were whispers of discontent that England allowed Serbia to play themselves back into the game but if they can grow into the tournament, it could be a vital three points on their route to the final in Berlin.

1-1 vs Denmark – As with their game against Serbia, England started well and took the lead, this time through Harry Kane. But unlike against Serbia, Denmark actually equalised and looked the more likely to take the win. It was a game that flattened a lot of the optimism surrounding this England team, and means they have to turn up against Slovenia.

0-0 Slovenia  – On paper, this was the easiest game of the group for England and one they would have welcomed as their final group game. England had 74% but managed just four shots on target and obviously failed to score. That said, Slovenia are on an nine-game unbeaten run, during which they also stood firm against Portugal. Plus Southgate’s substitutes produced a spark of excitement. Cole Palmer in particular, of whom Roy Keane said, “I wouldn’t want to play against him.”

England’s route as Group C winners

Last 16: England didn’t learn their last 16 opponents until after the final whistle went on the group stage. In the end it was Slovakia who earned their spot in this fixture, after finishing third in Group E.

Quarter-finals: The runner up of Group A or B, respectively Switzerland or Italy. So a potential rematch from the Euro 2020 final.

Semi-finals: The winners of Group E, Romania, or winner of Group D — and potential Euro 2024 dark horses — Austria. They could also face the runners-up from Group F, Turkey, or the team that finished third in Group D, Netherlands — having avoided them in the last 16.

England’s reasons for optimism

Pre-tournament the quality of Harry Kane, Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka should all fill England fans with dreams of glory this summer.

Then they scored two goals between them in a group England were expected to dominate.

However, England avoided the side of the draw that could have put them up against Germany, Spain, Portugal and France. So it could have been a lot worse.

As things stand, England have also conceded the lowest xG total at the tournament and the introduction of Kobbie Mainoo and (later) Cole Palmer led to more dynamism against Slovenia.

England’s potential roadblocks

The creativity – as mentioned above – has been inferior to the likes of Georgia and Albania. It all seems to stem from the fact Southgate doesn’t yet know what England’s best team is.

It is also true that while England may have progressed to the latter stages in recent tournaments, when it’s come to the biggest games they have been found wanting. The 2018 World Cup semi-final saw Croatia come from behind to win the match and it was a similar story in the Euro 2020 final, where Southgate wasn’t able to see his side hold onto the lead against Italy, losing on penalties. The 2022 World Cup saw England fall to France at the quarter final stage, making it the third tournament in a row that England were unable to defeat nations that sit around them in the Fifa world rankings. This summer will be another test as to whether England have the ability to break out from the pack and become the elite national side that many believe they can.

All three of those defeats in recent years have fallen at the feet of Southgate, with many England fans blaming the coach for tactical mistakes or substitutions that were ill-judged or mistimed. With Southgate’s future still under question following Euro 2024, this could be his last chance to prove that he can get the small things right and lead England to European glory.

Gareth Southgate tactical insights

Here was how England lined up against Slovenia, with Trent Alexander-Arnold experiment ending with Conor Gallagher’s introduction to midfield.

But will Southgate switch things up again?

Palmer was England’s most dynamic player upon replacing Bukayo Saka, though the Arsenal winger himself has been one of the brighter attackers throughout the group stage.

Mainoo’s presence also coincided with an increased tempo while Trent Alexander-Arnold looked more comfortable at right-back. Could Kyle Walker be a viable left-back option? Luke Shaw is reportedly some way of match fitness and prior to being subbed, Kieran Trippier was seen gripping his calf — an injury he was said to be nursing pre-match.

Fan and media perspectives

The quiet pre-tournament optimism among England fans is diminished and tense exchanges between players and pundits have played out in press conferences. The media can be the England squad’s best friend or worst enemy and this summer is proving to be no different.