Euro 2024 Day 12 Stat Pack: 21/10 Højbjerg shots angle and no England cards | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - unleashes his data analysis on a cracking double-dip day of action at Euro 2024 and tips up some shrewd betting angles to consider...

England Superboost

Gareth Southgate's men have flown out of the blocks in both Group C encounters at Euro 2024, playing on the front foot from the first whistle and scoring early against both Serbia and Denmark.

We think England will start strongly again tonight, and becaue we like to play different, we're happy to pay out on another fast start for the Three Lions.

So if you fancy England to register at least one shot in the first 10 minutes against Slovenia this evening, then take advantage of our super-boosted price of 1/1 (from 1/4) now.

Football Only Bettor Euros Daily Podcast - Listen to Tuesday's tips here!

France vs Poland (17:00) - Saliba dominance points to clean sheet

William Saliba is at it again, playing like the best centre back in the world. Didier Deschamps finally saw the light and made him his first choice alongside Dayot Upamacano - and the early signs have been promising. The balance between them is similar to that of Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães at Arsenal in that Upamacano is the enforcer and Saliba is the calming presence that is one step ahead of the attackers.

France have kept back-to-back clean sheets, offering up just 0.76 worth of expected goals against to Austria and 0.46 to Netherlands.

Saliba's record now for club and country in competitive matches in 2024 reads just 13 goals conceded in 24 matches to a backdrop of 0.76 per 90 in terms of expected goals against. Impeccable. France to win to nil here vs already eliminated Poland at [Evens] will be popular.

Saliba is 80/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook to win the Player of the Tournament - not a bad price for the world's best in his position.

Netherlands vs Austria (17:00) - First half fouls to the fore

No team have committed more fouls than Austria per 90 minutes at Euro 2024 (16.4) as their high intensity and counter pressing game under Ralf Rangnick has worked a charm so far. The passes per defensive action (PPDA) is key data when it comes to analysing how affective a press is and that metric also has Austria top of the shops as they've allowed just 8.72 passes per defensive action off the opposition.

It's the best in the tournament and mirrors their work in qualifying.

Austria fouls are my angle of attack here but I'm a little wary of this game drifting to a draw in the second half with both teams set for qualification with a point. Betfair do offer player first half fouls markets though so I'm going to play an Austrian double there and hope to bag winner.

Konrad Laimer has made 18 fouls in his last 13 starts for Austria, including three already at this tournament and he sets the press for Rangnick from his hybrid role in midfield. He is 15/8 to make a first half foul. We can get that price to 9/1 by adding Stefan Posch to make a first half foul too. He's made 14 fouls in his last five starts, showing a clear liking for the Rangnick way of playing.

Denmark vs Serbia (20:00) - Hojbjerg taking aim from all angles

Denmark have had 16 shots in each of their two fixtures so far, the fourth highest per 90 ranking of any team for that metric. And they boasted more touches in the opposition box and passes in the final third than England in that 1-1 draw where much of the spotlight was on how timid Gareth Southgate's men were but the Danes deserved credit for their sparky approach.

With Serbia knowing it's win or bust - it's not quite that for Denmark as three points will be enough for second if England beat Slovenia - this game should be very watchable and Denmark shots are where my money is going.

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg is a bit of a shots machine for Denmark and his shot on target price of 21/10 is begging to backed. He had FOUR shots on target against England, playing like his life depended on how many shots on target he could muster. When in sight, he shot. He's now had 13 shots in his last five caps with nine hitting the target.

England vs Slovenia (20:00) - Tame Lions to be shown zero cards

England have been shown just two cards in their last eight group stages matches at major tournaments.

Gareth Southgate has built a style of football that rarely throws games into chaos and that, added to England having clear superiority over lesser nations at this stage of the tournament, is leading to low card counts. In fact, in six of those eight matches the under 0.5 card line for England backers would have landed. It didn't in their previous clash with Denmark thanks to Conor Gallagher's brainless addiction to fouls but the price that day was 100/30, so it certainly suggests the market isn't quite reading this low card angle. We can get 29/10 on it here so the numbers make it a must-back.

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more content!

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Recommended bets

1pt on 1+ Hojbjerg shots on target @ 21/10

1pt on no England cards v Slovenia @ 29/10

1pt on 1+ first half fouls from Laimer & Posch @ 9/4