Euro 2024 Last 16 Stat Pack: Germany fouls at 6/4 & Bastoni shots at 8/5 | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Lewis Jones previews the first two Round of 16 games at Euro 2024

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - digs through the data and stats to unleash some shots and foul focused punts as the knockout stages begin at Euro 2024...

England v Slovakia Superboost

Betfair customers have voted for Sunday's Superboost to be 'England NOT to have a shot in the first 10 minutes (v Slovakia)'. They clearly know their stuff, as the Three Lions have failed to have a single attempt in the opening 10 minutes of any of their three Euro 2024 games so far.

The selection has had a (super) boost up to 3/1!

Switzerland v Italy (17:00) - Set pieces to prove crucial with eyes on Bastoni

If like me, you've been eyeing up the Swiss price to win the game in 90 minutes here at 21/10 then their horrendous record in knockout football is hanging around like a bad smell.

I tend not to put much weight on football results for teams stretching back over the years but psychologically the fact the Swiss haven't won any of their last eight knockout matches in 90 minutes is hard to ignore. On seven of those occasions they departed at the last-16 stage. I can't trust them.

Playing the props markets looks a greater chance to grab some value, where I'm very interested in the prices of Italian defender Alessandro Bastoni.

Readers of yesterday's column will have already noted my recommendation of backing Bastoni to score first at 50/1 but his shot price is also worth snapping up at 8/5. It's a bet that would've landed in two of Italy's group games with the defender's presence and ability in the air being utilised as a big weapon for the Italians.

Bastoni registered 15 shots last season for Inter Milan, going at a rate of 0.59 per 90 minutes so the prices available - both to have a shot and to score - are certainly value plays.

Germany v Denmark (20:00) - Fouls to the fore for Nagelsmann's nasties

The addition of knockout football jeopardy into the mix is only going to enhance the intensity Germany play at.

I've been watching and backing their foul lines under Julian Nagelsmann - a man who loves to play aggressively - and the odds look good to me here to get involved.

Germany have committed 15-13-12 fouls in their three group games, keeping that average number under Nagelsmann's watch at 13.3 per 90 minutes. It's worth noting that only three of those games have been competitive ones too which may have dragged down the average slightly.

The Germany fouls lines is set at 12 or more here at 10/11 with the Sportsbook and that's worth backing.

We can boost that price further into our favour by adding Antonio Rudiger to make at least one foul which gets us to 6/4.

Rudiger, someone who is embracing the Nagelsmann way, making 14 fouls under him in his nine appearances. He's made four fouls at this tournament already and is likely to come into contact with Rasmus Hojlund, who is Denmark's most potent drawer of fouls having drew 16 fouls in qualifying and in the group stage combined at a rate of 1.76 fouls per 90.

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