Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Brentford 3 Newcastle 1 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These were five Premier League matches on Sunday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Palace 0.84 v Brighton 0.64 (0-0)

Brentford 2.74 Newcastle United 0.43 (3-1)

Forest 2.49 v Leeds 0.42 (3-1)

Man City 1.60 v Liverpool 1.03 (3-0)

As you can see, some interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

In the Palace v Brighton match, clearly a match very low on clear scoring opportunities and the Expected Goals stats (0.84 v 0.64) reflected in the goalless final score.

The Aston Villa match is a strange one, very similar and decent Expected Goals stats (1.88 v 2.01), but clearly a match where Villa were clinical as they scored four goals. Whereas the opposite with Bournemouth, who failed to convert any of a relatively high number of good chances.

Man City the better team and deserving to win (Expected Goals stats 1.60 v 1.03) but Pep’s side clinical with their finishing to get as many as three goals, Liverpool’s finishing though matching their overall performance.

Forest recovered from an early Leeds goal and their Expected Goals dominance (2.49 v 0.42) very much justifying the eventual dominant 3-1 home victory.

Which leaves the Newcastle match.

Brentford (2.74) the very highest Expected Goals stat of the ten teams playing on Sunday, whilst Newcastle were only fractionally higher (0.43) than Leeds (0.42) who had the very lowest of the ten.

The 2.31 disparity in Expected Goals between Brentford and Newcastle was also easily the highest.

All of this pointing to the Bees absolutely deserving the victory.

As well as the Expected Goals stats, we have the evidence of our own eyes AND the other relevant key stats that help form the full picture.

Brentford with three times as many shots (15 v 5), the home side with seven shots on target compared to only the Barnes goal for Newcastle, three times as many corners (6 v 2), whilst Brentford had more than twice as many touches of the ball in the opposition box (35 v 16) compared to United.

Brentford 3 Newcastle 1 – Sunday 9 November 2025 2pm

Match Stats

Newcastle United:

Barnes 27, Burn red card 73

Schade 56, Thiago 78 pen, 90+5

Possession was Newcastle 51% Brentford 49%

Total shots were Newcastle 5 Brentford 15

Shots on target were Newcastle 1 Brentford 7

Corners were Newcastle 2 Brentford 6

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 16 Brentford 35

Newcastle team v Brentford:

Pope (Ramsdale 77), Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn, Bruno (Miley 96), Joelinton (Ramsey 24), Tonali (Willock 77), Murphy (Elanga 77), Woltemade, Barnes (Hall 77)

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