Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 1 Southampton 0

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The Mag

·19 August 2024

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 1 Southampton 0

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Ipswich 0.34 v Liverpool 3.93 (0-2)

Arsenal 1.63 v Wolves 0.58 (2-0)

Everton 0.41 v Brighton 1.79 (0-3)

Newcastle United 0.43 v Southampton 1.95 (1-0)

Forest 1.24 v Bournemouth 1.91 (1-1)

West Ham 2.80 v Villa 2.67 (1-2)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

We all know the Newcastle United match had an extra element, 101 minutes were played in total but 73 of those minutes saw NUFC play a man down. Schar sent off on 28 minutes after the embarrassing cheating by Ben Brereton Diaz.

That red card meant that Eddie Howe’s emphasis had to be on keeping things tight as possible and rely on getting decent numbers forward where possible, on the break.

There had been little goalmouth action and next to no real chances at either end before that 28th minute red card, apart from a shocking header well wide from Ben Brereton Diaz only eight yards out, so the overwhelming majority of the Expected Goals stats would have came from the action that followed that sending off, the 73 minutes when Newcastle had only 1o men.

Yet the Expected Goals stats ended up Newcastle United 0.43 and Southampton 1.95.

The low NUFC stat is surely self-explanatory, especially once Joelinton pounced 17 minutes after the Schar dismissal, to score Newcastle’s (winning) goal. Newcastle United predictably even more now looking to sit back and ensure they restricted the Saints to as few clear chances as possible, to protect that one goal lead.

For Southampton to manage only 1.95 on the Expected Goals stat is quite remarkable and testament to what a brilliant job the nine Newcastle United players did in front of Nick Pope. An Expected Goals stat of 1.95 is very average and as you can see, teams such as West Ham (2.80), Villa (2.67) and Liverpool (3.93) created far more and better chances playing against 11 men.

Nick Pope was a real confidence booster for those in front of him but in the end he only had to face five efforts on target and most of those were comfortable saves, only one from Armstrong that he excellently tipped over, was anything of note for the United keeper.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Newcastle 1 Southampton 0 – Saturday 17 August 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Schar red card 28, Joelinton 45

Southampton:

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Newcastle 22% (27%) Southampton 78% (73%)

Total shots were Newcastle 3 (3) Southampton 19 (4)

Shots on target were Newcastle 1 (1) Southampton 5 (1)

Corners were Newcastle 3 (3) Southampton 12 (1)

Touches in the box Newcastle 16 (11) Southampton 48 (8)