Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 2 Athletic Bilbao 0 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well teams play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These Expected Goals stats from Newcastle 2 Athletic Bilbao 0:

Newcastle United 1.17 v Athletic Bilbao 0.60

As you can see, these Expected Goals stats giving us a better idea of how the match really went, going beyond just the final scoreline.

Reality is that when it comes to clear chances created, Bilbao played some decent football in the first half but pretty much any shots they had were from distance, in both the first half and the second half.

The other underlying stats (see below) show that Bilbo had more shots (12 v 8) than Newcastle United and more (5 v 4) on target but United’s were better quality chances. Whether in open play or from set-pieces.

Whilst when it came to touches by players in the opposition penalty area, Newcastle with the advantage of 20 v 16.

I thought Nick Pope was excellent last night, always brave as usual when so good at sweeping behind his defence, as well as coming for balls into the box.

The two Newcastle United goals were expertly created with brilliant balls into the box by Trippier and Barnes, so good were the deliveries that both Burn and Joelinton had free headers.

Still with plenty to do but Joelinton’s finish was clinical, whilst that finish from Dan Burn? Simply magical.

Newcastle United had a fraction under twice (1.17 v 0.60) the Expected Goals stat compared to Athletic Bilbao. Not loads of chances overall in the match but Newcastle definitely deserving the victory overall.

Newcastle 2 Athletic Bilbao 0 – Wednesday 5 November 2025 8pm

Newcastle United:

Burn 11, Joelinton 49

Bilbao:

Possession was Newcastle 58% Bilbao 42%

Total shots were Newcastle 8 Bilbao 12

Shots on target were Newcastle 4 Bilbao 5

Corners were Newcastle 2 Bilbao 5

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 20 Bilbao 16

Newcastle team v Athletic Bilbao:

Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn (Hall 65), Bruno (Miley 66), Joelinton, Tonali, Gordon (Jacob Murphy 41), Woltemade (Ramsey 83), Barnes (Elanga 66)