Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 2 Fulham 1 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These were four Premier League matches on Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Chelsea 1.21 v Sunderland 1.55 (1-2)

Newcastle United 2.77 v Fulham 1.52 (2-1)

Man U 1.96 v Brighton 0.95 (4-2)

Brentford 3.27 v Liverpool 2.12 (3-2)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

In all four matches, the team with the higher Expected Goals stat also won the match.

Even the Mackems at a ridiculously overhyped Chelsea, created more/better chances than the home side. Not by much (Sunderland’s Expected Goals stat 1.55 v Chelsea’s 1.22) but their win and the home side’s defeat, not some huge fluke.

The same with Brentford against Liverpool, the Bees clearly (3.27 v 2.12) deserving the victory over the fast fading reds.

Same at Old Trafford, Man U (1.96 v 0.95) obviously deserving their win, when based on number and quality of chances created.

As for Newcastle United?

Well, of all four matches, United had the biggest Expected Goals stat advantage over the opponent, 2.77 v 1.52, making NUFC higher by 1.25.

It may have been a 90th minute winner but Eddie Howe’s side fully deserving the victory. Fulham made it an even contest in the middle of the game BUT Newcastle easily the better side in the opening and closing stages of the match.

As you can see from the other stats below, Newcastle had the advantage in every department, with more possession, more shots more efforts on target, more corners and more touches of the ball in the opposition penalty area.

As well as the two goals they did score, Newcastle had a fair few other big chances, most notably Gordon sending Murphy clear with just the keeper to beat but that time Leno saving well, whilst Bruno had a free header only eight yards out thanks to another brilliant ball from Gordon, our captain somehow missing the target. Fulham had chances as well but apart from their goal I don’t recall them having anything so good as those clear chances United had.

Newcastle left it late but totally deserved this win.

Newcastle 2 Fulham 1 – Saturday 25 October 2025 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Murphy 18, Bruno 90

Fulham:

Lukic 56

Possession was Newcastle 51% Fulham 49%

Total shots were Newcastle 18 Fulham 12

Shots on target were Newcastle 7 Fulham 5

Corners were Newcastle 4 Fulham 3

Touches in the box Newcastle 36 Fulham 25

Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Botman (Schar 61), Burn, Bruno, Joelinton, Miley (Tonali 61), Gordon (Elanga 76), Woltemade (Osula 86), Murphy (Barnes 61)

Subs:

Ramsdale, Krafth, Willock, Ramsey

(3 Positives and 3 Negatives to take from Newcastle 2 Fulham 1 – Read HERE)

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Interesting on Newcastle United after 2-1 Fulham win – Read HERE)