Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 2 Nottingham Forest 0 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the five Premier League matches from Sunday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Villa 1.74 v Burnley 0.50 (2-1)

Everton 2.14 v Palace 2.18 (2-1)

Newcastle United 3.82 v Forest 0.34 (2-0)

Wolves 0.37 v Brighton 1.39 (1-1)

Brentford 0.69 v Man City 1.10 (0-1)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Those Expected Goals stats giving us a better idea of how these matches really went, going beyond just the final scoreline.

Villa’s Expected Goals stat of 1.74 clearly showing they deserved to beat Burnley (0.50).

A very right game on Merseyside where Everton won in added time, the Expected Goals stats (2.14 v 2.18) suggest a very open match that could have gone either way and a draw would have been a fair result.

Brighton left it late to equalise in the 86th minute but as the Expected Goals stats show (Wolves 0.37 to Brighton’s 1.39), it would have been a fortunate win if Wolves had held on.

As for Man City, their 1-0 victory at Brentford didn’t have a great deal in it when it came to the Expected Goals stats (Brentford 0.69 and Man City 1.10). However, Pep’s side doing what they used to do so many times in the past, scoring early (9th minute) and then strangle the game, giving the opposition next to no clear chances, but showing no great attacking intent of their own once going ahead.

What about Newcastle United then?

For me, whilst it was a frustrating first half where Forest’s deep defending largely stifled United’s attacking in the first half, by the end of the match it was a case of Newcastle could and should have hammered them. The two goal winning margin at least doubled.

Forest broke well a few times but in reality, quality Newcastle United defending meant the visitors didn’t have an open and clear sight of Nick Pope’s goal at any time. Their 0.34 Expected Goals stat sums that up.

As for Newcastle United, they had an Expected Goals stat (3.84) that was more than eleven times higher than Forest’s.

It was also by some distance the highest of all 20 Premier League clubs this past weekend.

You had Newcastle with that 3.84 Expected Goals stat, then Arsenal (3.06) when winning 2-0 against West Ham third highest Palace (2.18) when losing at Everton.

You also look at the other key stat from United’s match and Eddie Howe’s team with 8 v 1 on corners, 18 v 5 on shots, 9 v 4 shots on target and actually the majority of NUFC’s nine on target were really good chances and some qualoty saves by Sels. Whereas Nick Pope with just regulation saves.

Newcastle 2 Nottingham Forest 0 – Sunday 5 October 2025 2pm

Newcastle United:

Bruno 58 Woltemade 84 pen

Forest:

Possession was Newcastle 52% Forest 48%

Total shots were Newcastle 18 Forest 5

Shots on target were Newcastle 9 Forest 4

Corners were Newcastle 8 Forest 1

Touches in the box Newcastle 33 Forest 16

Newcastle team v Forest:

Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn, Bruno, Joelinton (Miley 92), Tonali, Gordon (Barnes 70), Woltemade (Osula 92), Elanga (Murphy 70)

Unused subs:

Ramsdale, Krafth, Willock, Lascelles, Schar

(Match Report – Today was a welcome return to such happiness… Read HERE)

(Newcastle 2 Nottingham Forest 0 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Interesting on Newcastle United after 2-0 Forest match – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 2 Nottingham Forest 0 – Instant Newcastle United fan/writer reaction – Read HERE)

Newcastle United fixtures (All of the Champions League matches will also be available to watch on TV in the UK):

Saturday 18 October – Brighton v Newcastle (3pm)

Tuesday 21st October: Newcastle United vs Benfica (8pm)

Saturday 25 October – Newcastle v Fulham (3pm)

Wednesday 29 October – Newcastle v Spurs (8pm) ITV and Sky Sports

Sunday 2 November – West Ham v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 5th November: Newcastle United vs Athletic Club (8pm)

Sunday 9 November – Brentford v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 22 November – Newcastle v Man City (5.30pm) Sky Sports