Expected Goals stats tell the very real story following Newcastle 1 Arsenal 0

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The Mag

·4 November 2024

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story following Newcastle 1 Arsenal 0

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

This is Saturday’s Premier League match from St James’ Park, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Newcastle United 0.86 Arsenal 0.91 (1-0)

So the away side actually just edged the Expected Goals stats BUT next to nothing in it.

What these Expected Goals stats show for sure, is that Saturday’s game was a very tight one, of few really clear chances at either end. A bit like last season, when whilst Newcastle United were deserved winners via that Anthony Gordon goal, it always looked like a match where one goal would decide it. Indeed, last season at SJP, Nick Pope didn’t have a serious save to make. The stats 12 months ago showed only one Arsenal effort on target and that was a very tame effort from outside the box straight at Nick Pope.

On Saturday, it was only one Arsenal effort on target again, but I can’t even remember Nick Pope having to make a serious save.

For Newcastle, the stats show four efforts on target and Alexander Isak and Joe Willock did force Raya into decent saves from half chances, as well as of course the brilliant goal which the Arsenal keeper didn’t stand a chance with. It was a superb cross but in terms of the Expected Goals stats it wouldn’t have scored very high, as Isak still had a lot to do and the majority of times, a striker wouldn’t have scored from that.

At the other end, that low Arsenal 0.91 Expected Goals stat was actually largely made up from Declan Rice’s late free header at the back post. I still think that every chance Nick Pope would have saved it if on target but it was easily the best chance Arsenal created, having found it so difficult against the excellent defending from Newcastle.

It is worth contrasting the Expected Goals stats with what happened the previous weekend.

Newcastle United actually edged it then at Stamford Bridge, and Expected Goals stat of 1.74, with Chelsea 1.62.

That was a good performance at Chelsea and when else have Newcastle United shared so much possession (NUFC with 49%) at Stamford Bridge? On Saturday against Arsenal it was only 36% possession for Newcastle.

Touches by your players in the opposition box showed Chelsea with 32 and Newcastle 26, next to nothing in it. Whilst on Saturday it was Newcastle 17 and Arsenal 32, although I think a lot of those would have been when the Gunners got around the edge of our box and then the defending preventing them getting a decent cross in as Arsenal did their usual thing of trying to work clever passes (and crosses) into the penalty area.

Newcastle 1 Arsenal 0 – Saturday 2 November 12.30pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 12

Arsenal:

Possession was Newcastle 36% Arsenal 64%

Total shots were Newcastle 9 Arsenal 10

Shots on target were Newcastle 4 Arsenal 1

Corners were Newcastle 4 Arsenal 6

Touches in the box Newcastle 17 Arsenal 32

Newcastle United team v Arsenal:

Pope; Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall; Longstaff, Bruno (Kelly 90+5), Willock (Tonali 65); Gordon (Barnes 85), Isak, Joelinton