Final-day permutations

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Bundesliga

·12 May 2025

Final-day permutations

Bundesliga Matchday 34 permutations: European race and relegation play-off spot go down to the wire

The title race may be over and automatic relegation confirmed, but three teams are still competing for UEFA Champions League spots. There's also a tight battle to qualify for Europe at all, while one team will be forced into the relegation play-off. Find out who needs what on the final day of 2024/25...

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The title

Bayern Munich finally got over the line with two games to spare, claiming their 33rd Bundesliga title. Their lead over dethroned champions Bayer Leverkusen is nine going into the final day.

UEFA Champions League qualification

The Bundesliga's top four finishers are all guaranteed Champions League football next season.

Bayern secured their spot on Matchday 27, with Leverkusen following suit on Matchday 29.

It's now a case of three teams into two remaining spots on the final day, which sees Freiburg (fourth, 55 points) host Eintracht Frankfurt (third, 57 points) and Borussia Dortmund (fifth, 54 points) host relegated Holstein Kiel.

Frankfurt will secure a top-four finish if:

They avoid defeat in Freiburg
Dortmund fail to win
They lose by a one-goal margin and Dortmund win by only a one-goal margin

Freiburg will secure a top-four finish if:

They beat Frankfurt
They draw and Dortmund fail to win
Dortmund lose

Dortmund will secure a top-four finish if:

They win by at least a three-goal margin*
They win by a two-goal margin and Freiburg don't win a very high-scoring game*
They win and Freiburg fail to win
They draw and Freiburg lose

*Given Freiburg and Frankfurt play each other, a win by at least a three-goal margin will be enough to see Dortmund overtake Freiburg (on points, if Freiburg fail to win) or Frankfurt (on goal difference, if Frankfurt lose).

Should Freiburg win their game by a margin of more than one goal, then Dortmund would suffice a win by a smaller margin. As long as Freiburg don't win their game with an unusually high score (e.g. 8-7, 7-6 or 6-5), then a win by two goals would be enough for Dortmund to break into the top four.

>>> Get more on the European race here!

UEFA Europa League

Only the fifth-placed side in the Bundesliga has a guaranteed spot in the Europa League's league phase.

Another spot will go to the winner of the DFB Cup, either VfB Stuttgart or Arminia Bielefeld of the 3. Liga, with neither finalist able to finish in the Bundesliga's top six.

Frankfurt and Freiburg are both assured of at least Europa League football next season.

Dortmund will secure at least fifth place if:

They draw against Kiel

Mainz host Leverkusen and RB Leipzig welcome Stuttgart on the final day. They could only snatch fifth place if Dortmund lost and either of them overturned BVB's currently superior goal difference.

For teams level on both points and goal difference, the next criterion is goals scored, followed by the head-to-head record between the respective teams.

UEFA Conference League play-offs

The team that finishes sixth qualifies for the Conference League play-offs.

Mainz will secure at least sixth place if:

They better Leipzig's result
They achieve the same result as Leipzig but maintain a superior goal difference (currently six goals in their favour)

Leipzig will secure at least sixth place if:

They better Mainz's result
They achieve the same result as Mainz but make up six goals on the 05ers to move ahead on goal difference

As noted above, teams with the same goal difference will then be separated by the number of goals scored. Mainz currently have two goals more this season.

Werder Bremen have a mathematical but almost impossible chance to still finish sixth. They would have to win in Heidenheim and hope that both Mainz and Leipzig lose, while making up 18 and 12 goals respectively on the pair.

>>> See the full list of fixtures the final weekend here!

Top-flight safety

All sides down to and including 13th place are mathematically safe.

St. Pauli (at home to Bochum), Hoffenheim (at home to Bayern) and Heidenheim (at home to Bremen) are battling to avoid finishing in 16th and having to contest the play-off to stay up.

St. Pauli will be safe if:

They get a point or more

Hoffenheim will be safe if:

They get a point or more

Heidenheim will be safe if:

They win and Hoffenheim lose in a way that overturns the six-goal difference (in reality, seven given TSG's superior goals scored total, unless Heidenheim were to score 10 themselves)

Relegation play-off

Whoever finishes 16th in the Bundesliga will contest the relegation play-off against the third-placed team in Bundesliga 2.

That will be Heidenheim unless they can overtake Hoffenheim or St. Pauli as stated above.

Automatic relegation

Holstein Kiel and Bochum were both relegated on Matchday 33.

>>> Click here to see who could be coming up to the Bundesliga!

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