Four matches in the spotlight: is this HSV’s survival plan? | OneFootball

After 23 matchdays, HSV finds itself in a quite comfortable position in the battle to stay in the league.

With 26 points, the Red Shorts are currently sitting in a solid eleventh place in the table. The lead over the relegation playoff spot—currently held by city rivals FC St. Pauli—is six points. This situation gives the promoted team some breathing room, but not yet complete safety.

There are additional arguments in HSV’s favor: Besides a postponed match against Bayer 04 Leverkusen (March 4), the Hanseatics (-7) have the second-best goal difference among all relegation candidates, behind only 1. FC Köln (-6).

But how many points are actually still needed? A look at recent Bundesliga seasons provides a clear guideline. In the last five years, 35 points have always been enough for direct survival in the league. The old football saying about the “magic 40 points” now seems outdated. 35 points are now considered a realistic benchmark.

For HSV, this means: nine points are still needed to reach safety! With twelve matches remaining, that’s an average of just 0.75 points per game. The key could lie in four particularly important matches.

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HSV faces decisive northern duels

The focus is especially on the home games against Köln and FC Augsburg. HSV has been extremely solid at the Volksparkstadion so far, so wins against direct competitors are almost a must. This calculation is supplemented by the away matches against northern rivals Wolfsburg and Bremen. Despite mixed performances on the road, at least one win should be the clear goal.

If HSV picks up nine points from these four matches, staying in the league would be practically within reach. Many of the remaining fixtures—such as against Leipzig, Stuttgart, or Dortmund—are more like bonus games. Even though coach Merlin Polzin’s team has already proven several times that they can compete against top teams.

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Statistical predictions also provide optimism: The supercomputer from data provider Opta currently puts the probability of a direct HSV relegation at just 1.2 percent. The risk of relegation via the playoff is only 2.7 percent.

The calculation is therefore clear: If HSV consistently picks up points against direct rivals, they could secure survival in the league much earlier than many had expected.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.