France vs England Prediction: World Cup Third-Place Play-Off Preview | OneFootball

France vs England: third-place play-off preview

France host England in the World Cup third-place play-off on Saturday, July 18, with kickoff at 21:00 UTC. Both sides arrive having lost their semi-finals, but neither will want to leave the tournament without a medal, and the data points to a tight, low-drama contest between two teams who know each other well.

Our model splits its lean almost evenly between a home win and a draw, and the market largely agrees that France are the team to beat here, even if the away price still pays out well for backers of an England upset.

Quick pick

France to win

@ 1.99

Confidence 45% Form WWWWWWL

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Form and context

Both teams topped their groups. France won Group I with nine points from three games and the best goal difference in the entire tournament at plus eight, while England won Group L with seven points and a plus four difference. Neither side has needed a play-off route to reach the closing weekend, which tells you plenty about the level of this fixture even with the trophy already gone.

The model’s form reading has France winning 80% of their last five matches, scoring 10 and conceding just 3. England match that 80% win rate over the same span but have been more open at the back, scoring 10 and shipping 6. That defensive gap is one of the clearer edges in France’s favour.

History leans French too. Of the last three meetings between these sides, France won 3-2 in 2017, drew 1-1 in 2012, and won the most recent clash 2-1 in December 2022. England have not beaten France since well before that run.

Recent form

France WWWWWWL 80% 10–3

England WDWWWWL 80% 10–6

Last 5 matches · last-5 points % · goals for–against

Attacking threats

Kylian Mbappé has been one of the tournament’s standout forwards, sitting on eight goals and three assists, with Ousmane Dembélé adding five goals and two assists in support. England counter with Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane, both on six goals and an assist apiece. Any of the four could decide this on their own, which keeps both teams’ goals markets live even in a fixture with little riding on the outcome beyond pride.

World Cup — top scorers

1 L. MessiArgentina 8 gls · 4 ast

2 Kylian MbappéFrance 8 gls · 3 ast

3 E. HaalandNorway 7 gls

4 J. BellinghamEngland 6 gls · 1 ast

5 H. KaneEngland 6 gls · 1 ast

The model’s read

Our model gives this one as close to a coin flip between the top two outcomes as it gets, splitting its probability evenly between a France win and a draw, with an England win trailing well behind. Its formal advice is a double chance on France or the draw, essentially backing France not to lose. That squares with the h2h record and the tighter defensive numbers France have shown, and it’s worth flagging that the market’s own implied prices lean a bit more heavily toward a straight France win than our model does toward the draw specifically, so the safer read here is France avoiding defeat rather than a big away-day upset from England.

SheKicks verdict

France to win @ 1.99

Confidence 45% Suggested stake 5/10

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Odds and value

Odds correct at the time of writing, taken from a market of 13 bookmakers. The best price on a straight France win is 1.99 with Dafabet, with the draw as high as 4.00 with BetVictor and England to win up at 4.03 with 1xBet.

The goals markets are tight too. Both teams to score is best backed at 1.48 with 1xBet, with the no-goals side of that market paying 2.88 with Betfair. For total goals, over 2.5 is priced at 1.50 with both Bet365 and Betano, while under 2.5 goes as high as 2.80 with Betfair.

Given the model’s own lean toward France avoiding defeat, the double chance line looks like where the practical value sits rather than chasing the outright England price, which the numbers do not really support.

World CupSat 18 Jul · 21:00

France v England

11.99Dafabet X4.00BetVictor 24.031xBet

Model pick

France to win

45%

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Our prediction

We’re following the model here: France or the draw, backing France not to lose the third-place play-off. It is not the most thrilling pick on the card, but it is the one the data supports, built on France’s tighter defence this tournament, their group-stage dominance, and a head-to-head record that has gone their way in two of the last three meetings.

Our tipping record

Our tracked picks have settled 79 bets this year at a 62% win rate, for a return on investment of 8.8%. That is a positive number, but it moves with every result, so treat any single tip, including this one, as part of a longer run rather than a promise.

SheKicks model — verified tipping record

34Tips settled

25–9Win–loss

74%Strike rate

+39.9%ROI

+13.56Profit (units)

Recent:WWWWLLLLLWLW

Level stakes to the price advertised at time of tip. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 18+

Odds shift quickly in the run-up to kickoff, so check prices before placing anything. Nothing here is a guarantee, and betting should always stay within what you can afford to lose. 18+, please bet responsibly.

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