Germany v Denmark: Hosts to net uncomfortable win | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Will Niclas Fullkrug be picked for the Germany starting XI?

Euro 2024 hosts Germany are on the charge, but Kevin Hatchard believes they'll have to work hard to overcome a stubborn Denmark.

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Germany v DenmarkSaturday 29 June, 20:00

Germany have kept summer fairytale on track

It was always going to be important for Germany and important for the tournament for the hosts to have a good group stage, and ultimately they delivered. A sparkling 5-1 win over Scotland was followed by a less impressive 2-0 victory against Hungary, and then Julian Nagelsmann's side had to really dig deep in a 1-1 draw with Switzerland that confirmed them as group winners.

That clash with the Swiss was a searching examination of Germany's weaknesses. Their sloppy build-up play from deep was exposed by the furious Swiss press, and Germany looked vulnerable on the counter, as they have done for a long time. Had Ruben Vargas not been marginally offside when he struck what appeared to be a goal to put Switzerland 2-0 up, this could be a very different tale.

As it turned out, with Germany 1-0 down in stoppage time, supersub Niclas Füllkrug rose highest at the far post to head his country level. That goal preserved the fragile feelgood factor, but the irony is that had he not scored it, Germany would have ended up in a far more forgiving half of the draw. Now, in theory, they are likely to face Spain in the quarters and France or Portugal in the semis.

Nagelsmann selected the same starting XI for all three group games, stating that the group needed to keep its rhythm. He will now be forced to make changes - Bayer Leverkusen centre-back Jonathan Tah is suspended, while his defensive partner Antonio Rüdiger could miss out with a thigh problem. Nico Schlotterbeck will deputise for Tah, while Waldemar Anton is ready to replace Rüdiger if needed.

It remains to be seen whether Füllkrug's heroics will net him a starting spot instead of Kai Havertz, but given the rather static nature of Denmark's back three, Havertz's movement and link-up play could be valuable. There is even speculation that both could start, with Florian Wirtz the man to make way after tepid displays against Hungary and Switzerland.

Experienced Danes aiming for another deep run

One of the accusations levelled against Denmark boss Kasper Hjulmand is that he hasn't refreshed his team enough, but that is easier said than done. While young guns like Manchester United striker Rasmus Hojlund and Sporting midfielder Morten Hjulmand (no relation to the coach) have broken into the first-team picture, the likes of Jesper Lindstrom at Napoli and Mikkel Damsgaard at Brentford have seen their progress stalled by a lack of game time at club level.

As it turns out, the experienced heads in the Denmark squad - the ones who helped them reach the semi-finals in Euro 2020 - have come to the fore. 37-year-old keeper Kasper Schmeichel has only conceded two goals in three group games, while 32-year-old Christian Eriksen scored a magnificent opener against Slovenia. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, who believe it or not is still only 28 despite collecting 79 caps, has been a powerhouse in midfield.

However, Denmark haven't exactly sparkled, drawing all three of their games. They faded badly in the second half of their game against Slovenia, drawing 1-1. Against England, they came from behind to draw 1-1, and despite being the better side in patches they failed to truly threaten after Morten Hjulmand's stunning long-range effort. In their final group match against Serbia, they were the better side for much of the game without scoring, and had some scares after the break in a goalless stalemate.

We shouldn't be surprised that Denmark are a solid outfit. They have lost just one of their last 15 internationals, and that was a meaningless 2-0 defeat at Northern Ireland in their final qualifier after they'd already nailed down a spot at these finals.

Germany to squeeze through to last eight

Denmark are going to make life awkward for Germany here. They'll defend doggedly and diligently, they'll work hard in midfield and they'll try not to let Toni Kroos dictate.

I do think Germany will expose a lack of pace in the Denmark team, but it might take a while, so I'll back Germany to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10 on the Sportsbook. Denmark have conceded multiple goals in just one of their last 15 games, and this bet gives us Germany wins of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1.

I also have an odds-against Bet Builder by combining Jamal Musiala and Christian Eriksen to each have a shot on target and Toni Kroos to be fouled. Kroos was fouled three times by Switzerland as Murat Yakin's team went after him, and he was also fouled against Scotland.

Musiala has had a shot on target in all three games, while Eriksen scored against Slovenia and also hit the target against Serbia. The Manchester United midfielder has had ten goal attempts across the three games.

That gives us a combined price of just under 5/1.