History shows Nottingham Forest are doomed and there’s only one man to blame | OneFootball

On Wednesday, Nottingham Forest failed to win a relegation six-pointer. A week and a day on from that, they will contest a European knockout fixture.

That juxtaposition highlights just how far Forest have fallen in not even the space of 12 months but half that. The downfall has been as rapid as it has been unsurprising with the club now staring at a possible return to the Championship.

The blame for this fall belongs overwhelmingly to Evangelos Marinakis and despite having no control over the club in UEFA’s eyes, Mr. Marinakis’ influence is not exactly covert.

It was there when he stormed the pitch following Forest’s 2-2 draw with Leicester last year. It was there when Nuno Espirito Santo spoke of falling out with the club’s decision maker. It was there when Edu was appointed and backed over Nuno despite the latter’s success. It was there when Ange Postecoglou was appointed. It was there when he was sacked.

That influence was there when reports, which were somehow believable, suggested that Marinakis himself may step onto the touchline. It was there on Wednesday when the camera cut to him in the stands like Commodus in Gladiator.

This is a mess entirely of his own making and having taken Forest out of their Championship purgatory, Marinakis may well have condemned them to a return.

Step one on the Greek shipping magnate’s road to self-implosion was getting in a very public spat with the manager who had just brought European football to the club for the first time in 30 years.

Step two was to hire a manager who looked so woefully unequipped with a far better squad and one whose style was the polar opposite of your previous manager.

Step three was to hire a manager whose defence-first approach may well keep you in the Premier League but to then sack him with the club one place higher than they were when you hired him.

Dyche’s sacking was not entirely undeserved. His style of play is never going to win too many fans and only Wolves have scored fewer goals than the Tricky Trees. Crucially though, Dyche earns his money at the other end of the pitch and of the relegation candidates, only Tottenham have conceded less and even that is by a margin of one.

The manager can also only work with the tools at his disposal. Forest had 35 shots against Wolves yet failed to score. Short of declaring himself player-manager and getting on the pitch, what more could Dyche have done about that?

Forest also did not significantly strengthen in the January transfer window and most of their summer signings fit more neatly into the category of ‘could be good, could be bad’ rather than guaranteed team improvers. 17th sounds about par for this squad.

History also shows that clubs that appoint three managers in a year are almost certainly destined for the drop.

Dyche was the 21st time a Premier League club has had three managers in a year, only six of the previous incidents did not end in relegation. Four permanent managers is unprecedented ground and a Forest fan looking for any shred of hope will not have found it with reports that Vitor Pereira is being lined up to replace Dyche.

That’s the Vitor Pereira who secured two points from Wolves’ opening 10 games of this year before being sacked.

Football managers have a habit of falling upwards, but Pereira’s appointment is reportedly due to his man-management skills with Forest keen to replicate the bond the players had with Nuno Espirito Santo. If only they had not sacked the man all the players got on with in the first place…

Forest’s season may well then hang on the man who started the year there for you feel that if the team do stay up now, it will be due to the fault of others rather than any kind of run Pereira would be able to generate. Both West Ham and Forest face Liverpool and City in two of their next four league games but after that, it is the London side that has the more favourable run-in.

If (when) Forest do go down, it is hard to see Marinakis turning over a new leaf and indulging in some self-reflection rather than blaming others but everyone else will know that this was a mess entirely of his own making.