How many points will it take for Premier League survival in 2025-26? | OneFootball

The Premier League relegation battle has been blown wide open with West Ham winning back-to-back matches for only the second time this season.

Prior to West Ham’s triumph over Tottenham, there was a seven-point gap between them and Nottingham Forest in 17th.

Following their emphatic 3-1 win over Sunderland, that gap has now been closed to just two points, with Leeds United and Bournemouth also looking over their shoulder.

In recent years, the threshold for survival has been incredibly low, last season 26 points would’ve guaranteed safety and it only took 27 in 2023-24.

Given the upturn in form that West Ham have shown of late along with Burnley and Wolves becoming harder to beat, the threshold for survival will almost certainly be higher this time around.

As of writing, Nottingham Forest occupies 17th place, having collected 22 points from their 22 games so far, averaging one point per game.

If they continue on that trajectory, they will finish the season with 38 points and will likely take something around that figure to guarantee survival.

In Premier League history, the average points needed to survive has been 36 and despite it being much lower in recent seasons, this year seems like it will return to somewhere around that average.

Funnily enough, it’s West Ham who hold the record for collecting the most points in a Premier League season (20 teams) and still being relegated.

Back in 2002-03, the Hammers accumulated 42 points, but that was only good enough to see them finish 18th.

If we assume that 38 points will be the benchmark for survival this season, it means that West Ham will need to pick up at least 18 points in their last 15 matches, averaging 1.2 PPG.

Burnley will need 24 points from their last 16 games, averaging 1.5 PPG and Wolves will need 30 points from their last 16, averaging 1.9 PPG.

For those above the dotted line to reach the 38-point landmark, Nottingham Forest need 16 points from their last 16, Leeds need 13 points from their last 16 and Bournemouth and Tottenham need 11 points from 16.

While this has no doubt been a painful campaign for Wolves, West Ham and Nottingham Forest fans in particular, it is refreshing to see a proper relegation battle ensue, instead of the three newly promoted clubs looking like cannon fodder.

Leeds United, in particular, have looked much more competitive since Daniel Farke switched to a 3-5-2 formation back in November.

Since that point, only eight Premier League clubs have picked up more points than Leeds, highlighting their improvement.

Heading into the tail end of the season, the relegation battle is still wide open and we can’t wait to see how the next few months unfold.