How many points will it take to win the Premier League this season? | OneFootball

Arsenal currently boast a five-point lead at the top of the Premier League table, but how many points will it take to win the title this year? We’ve crunched the numbers.

Since Pep Guardiola’s arrival at Manchester City in 2016, the number of points required to lift the Premier League title has risen considerably.

Indeed, since Guardiola won his first Premier League title in 2017–18, the average number of points needed to win the league is 92.5.

That number is up considerably on the Premier League average, which has the champions on around 87 points.

Last season, Liverpool were crowned champions with just 84 points, with their closest challengers, Arsenal, 10 points behind them on 74.

However, will that be enough to get over the line this season? We’ve taken a closer look.

As of writing, Arsenal have averaged 2.37 points per game across their first 19 matches of the season. If they continue to pick up points at the same rate, they’ll finish the campaign with 90 points.

That would match their greatest ever point tally of the Premier League era, matching the 2003-04 Invincibles who also picked up 90 points.

It would also be a record tally for Mikel Arteta, with his previous best year coming in 2023-24, when the Gunners finished second with 89 points.

Arsenal’s closest challengers appear to be Manchester City, who themselves have picked up the pace in recent months.

Guardiola’s side are currently averaging 2.2 points per game and are projected to finish the season with 84 points.

While that tally was enough to crown Liverpool champions last season, it likely won’t be enough for Man City this time around.

That means that City will need to pick up the pace in the second half of the season if they want to come close to the 90-point benchmark.

It is worth highlighting that since the start of November, City have picked up more points than any other club in the league, having won eight of their last nine matches.

Across that run, Guardiola’s side have averaged a whopping 2.67 points per game. If they were able to maintain that between now and the end of the season, it would see them ending the campaign with 93 points.

For context, Aston Villa are currently projected to end the season with 78 points and Liverpool are projected to end the campaign with 68 points.

In all likelihood, it will take a points tally in the high eighties or low nineties in order to be crowned champions this season.

Given the title race that is shaping up between Arsenal and Man City, the point threshold will almost certainly be higher than it was last season.