How Vasco’s slip-up affects their Brasileirão chances

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·3 October 2025

How Vasco’s slip-up affects their Brasileirão chances

The defeat against Palmeiras by 3-0 last Wednesday had an immediate negative impact on the mathematical projections for Vasco da Gama in the Brazilian Championship. According to the main websites specialized in probabilities, the risk of the club being relegated has risen again, while the chances of qualifying for a continental cup have decreased.

+ THE MONTH OF SURVIVAL! Vasco faces a marathon of high-risk games

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Relegation risk returns to double digits

After a series of good results, Vasco had managed to considerably reduce its risk of relegation. However, the setback in São Paulo caused the probability to rise again. According to the site Infobola, the chance of relegation is now 13%. For the UFMG Mathematics Department, the risk is 10.6%. The Gato Mestre from the ge portal indicates a probability of 7.6%.

Chance of Libertadores becomes even more remote

If the fight at the bottom has become a concern again, the hope at the top has practically ended. The chances of Vasco securing a spot in the Libertadores via the Brasileirão are considered minimal. Infobola gives only a 1% chance of the team reaching the G6. Gato Mestre points to 1.75% for the same goal.

Spot in the South American Cup is still the most likely scenario

The most realistic goal for the Cruz-Maltino in the competition, according to the numbers, remains the qualification for the South American Cup. UFMG, the only site that calculates this probability, indicates that the club has a 45.7% chance of securing the spot. The defeat to Palmeiras, therefore, serves as a warning: the main fight for Vasco is still, and will continue to be, to ensure permanence in Serie A.