HSV captain confident: “We’ve got enough points” – but is that really true? | OneFootball

With an unexpected last-minute draw against BVB, HSV has emotionally bid farewell to the international break. Yussuf Poulsen is satisfied with the current points tally.

For the first time, Yussuf Poulsen led Hamburger SV onto the field as captain from the start in the 1-1 draw against Borussia Dortmund. The injury-plagued forward lasted 60 minutes before being replaced by the later goal scorer Ransford Königsdörffer. After the final whistle, Poulsen was accordingly happy – both with the performance against BVB and with the season's points tally so far.

"We have enough points for what we want. We could even have more points, the way we played," said the 31-year-old. A statement that undoubtedly conveys a high level of confidence and belief in their own strength. But is it true?

For context: After ten Bundesliga games, HSV has an average of 0.9 points per match. Projected over the entire season, that would be around 31 points. A mark that in the past five years would have only once been enough for direct survival in the league. Four times it would have meant only 16th place and thus relegation playoffs.

Additionally, HSV has already played against some direct competitors in the relegation battle, namely Gladbach, St. Pauli, Heidenheim, Mainz, and Wolfsburg. The remaining schedule until the end of the first half of the season is tough: Six of the next seven opponents are currently in the top ten of the table. It is therefore not out of the question that the points average could drop further in the coming weeks.

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Does HSV have enough points? Reasons to believe so

But Poulsen's optimism is not unfounded. In fact, the trend is generally upward: In the form table of the last seven matchdays, HSV occupies a very respectable eleventh place. After a completely botched start to the season and only one point from the first three matches, the Rothosen have now arrived in the Bundesliga.

Moreover, the competition at the bottom of the table is unusually weak. Considering the performance of Heidenheim, St. Pauli, and others, 30 to 31 points might actually be enough for direct survival this season.

The advanced performance data may contradict Poulsen's statement that they have scored enough so far, but they can still be seen as encouraging. According to the Expected Points table (understat.com), the team would have deserved two more points. Additionally, there has been significant bad luck with the woodwork: The ball has already hit the crossbar or post five times, only Mainz (six times) has hit the frame more often.

The recent 1-1 against BVB offers further reason for optimism: HSV can keep up with top teams, often playing on equal terms and at times even better. This insight should and must be carried into the upcoming weeks when they face Stuttgart, Hoffenheim, and Frankfurt, among others.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.