Inter Miami Won’t Lift The Supporter’s Shield – Who Will? | OneFootball

Let’s face it: Messi and company will not repeat as MLS team with the overall best season record.

Last year Inter Miami cruised into the Supporter’s Shield trophy, their 74 points surpassing LAFC’s 2022 tally of 72. We all remember what came next: Atlanta United’s shocking first round upset in three games. Miami became only the second Shield winner to suffer that fate; Philadelphia Union first accomplished it in 2020.

Turns out, a Supporter’s Shield win does not translate to MLS Cup success. Only 31% of Shield winners have lifted the Cup; and only two of the last ten (LAFC in 2022 and Toronto in 2017). This uncertainty is part of MLS’s charm, that no one team is guaranteed domination. Still, with an automatic berth in the CONCACAF Champions Cup and a lovely shiny plate for the trophy case, the rewards are worth it.

A Tight Race

As we enter the final four game stretch (for most sides, more on that later), there are still nine potential winners. Some are longshots; none are shoe-ins. We break down each team, current position, points, and weigh their remaining fixtures.

Philadelphia Union (1st place on 57 points)

Max points: 69Two weeks ago Philly would have been a heavy favorite. But a 7 – 0 beat-down by Vancouver, and a dispiriting 3 – 1 defeat to Nashville in the U.S. Open Cup on Tuesday, have made them look shaky. Folks are wondering how much gas is left in their tank.

Their remaining schedule is lightweight: New England Revolution, DC United (away), NYCFC. It all comes to a head on October 18 when they visit Charlotte. This game could very well decide it.

San Diego FC (2nd place on 56 points)

Max points: 68No expansion team has ever won the Supporter’s Shield. Let’s get that stated up front. They’ve won MLS Cups, and frankly, San Diego would be thrilled to win either in their inaugural season.

Beating LAFC 2 – 1 before the international break was a critical moment. Their four upcoming games are all winnable, even if they’re on the road for most of them. Only one opponent has a winning record: Atlanta (away), San Jose Earthquakes, Houston Dynamo (away), Portland Timbers (away).

FC Cincinnati (3rd place on 55 points)

Max points: 67They haven’t been the most consistent side, but when they’re firing on all cylinders… look out. The attacking duo of Evander and Kévin Denkey can tear through defenses.

With two easy fixtures in the final four, they will be in everyone’s rear view mirror, and objects may be closer than they appear. Fixtures: LA Galaxy (away), Orlando City, NY Red Bulls (away), Montréal.

Minnesota United (4th place on 54 points)

Max points: 66Two things have defined The Loons, a side built on the cheap (26th in the league for salary spend), this season: Joaquín Pereyra and set pieces.

The Argentine Pereyra had numerous suitors during the transfer window, but Minnesota held firm to keep him in the fold. He doesn’t have the biggest numbers (4g/7a) but is crucial to their possession and attack. Minnesota have scored more goals from one specific set piece, the long throw-in, than any other team… in the world. Nearly all of them off second balls or flick-ons.

Hooligan Take: Minnesota will be your shock winner. Stung by their exist in the U.S. Open Cup, the Loons are going to rip through their next four games, all against teams with poor records: Chicago Fire, Colorado Rapids (away), Sporting Kansas City, LA Galaxy (away).

Charlotte FC (5th place on 53 points)

Max points: 65We’re down into long-shot territory here, mostly because they would need some help. But, and it’s a big one, Charlotte are also riding a record-tying nine game winning streak.

If they were to do the improbable and win out the rest of the season, not only would that shatter the consecutive winning record, it would seem almost unfair to not have them lift the cup. A very squishy set of games — NYCFC (away), Montréal, DC United (away) — until the final, where they host Philadelphia, means one of those two things might happen.

The Game-in-Hand Factor

All five of the above have four games left to play. But these next three teams have more games-in-hand, mainly due to tournament (Club World Cup, U.S. Open Cup, etc.) conflicts.

Vancouver Whitecaps (6th place on 52 points)

Max points: 70So strong for so long, Vancouver appears to have recovered from their mid-season slump and is back on the rise.

With six games in hand, Vancouver largely control their own destiny (needing some help from those above them). Here are their fixtures: Sporting Kansas City, Portland Timbers (away), SEA (away), San Jose Earthquakes, Orlando City (away), Dallas.

New York City FC (8th place on 50 points)

Max points: 65The longest of long-shots for the Shield, I’m including them here because they three of the other front-runners and can play spoiler.

Here’s their fixture list, with key game in bold: Charlotte, Inter Miami, NY Red Bulls (away), Philadelphia Union (away), Seattle Sounders.

Inter Miami (9th place on 49 points)

Max points: 70Because of their ridiculous number of games left (seven), you can’t rule out Messi and co. But let’s be honest, they’re more focused on winning the MLS Cup than running these last matches with wins.

Miami has never had a seven-game winning streak. In fact, only three teams have accomplished that outside of the shootout era: Charlotte FC (9 – current), Columbus Crew (8 – 2009), Colorado Rapids (7 – 2016). So let’s not expect that. They also have major consistency and discipline issues; in these upcoming matches they will probably be their own undoing. Here’s who they play: DC United, NYCFC (away), Toronto (away), Chicago Fire, New England Revolution, Atlanta, Nashville (away)