Inter Milan v Arsenal: Why William Saliba will be fouled at 11/10 | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Saliba is 11/10 to be fouled v Inter Milan

The Gunners travel to the San Siro to face Inter Milan on Tuesday and with tournament favourites Arsenal through but Inter still having work to do, Lewis Jones looks to the player betting markets for his tips...

Inter v ArsenalTuesday, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

A tough game to predict

Arsenal arrive in Milan with the job already done. Six wins from six in the Champions League league phase, their ticket stamped for the last 16 and confidence flowing through Mikel Arteta's side.

Perfection achieved early brings freedom and rotation possibilities.

This can make life as a punter tricky in this spot. When one side plays with the calm of qualification and the other with the urgency of obligation, the game from a betting perspective can become a touch random. Arsenal are 2.6 favourites on the Betfair Exchange - a price which could tempt many in. Inter can be backed at 3.0.

It's a tricky market to assess so I'm heading elsewhere for a best bet.

Saliba in prime position to be fouled

Repeatable trends are a thing of beauty in this game. It can produce simple betting angles as the numbers keep shouting the same message. Strip the game back to the raw components and one thing jumps off the page when Inter Milan are involved: their front two don't just score goals, they commit fouls. Lots of them. And that's a profitable betting angle to explore.

Marcus Thuram (2.4 fouls per 90 this season) and Lautaro Martínez (1.85 per 90) are built for chaos. Power, pace, clever movement and a constant willingness to play on the shoulder of the last defender. They press aggressively, they chase lost causes and they aren't shy about leaving a foot in when centre-backs try to play through them. That cocktail of chaos usually means busy nights for opposition defenders.

William Saliba will be the man asked to build play under pressure for Arsenal, step out with the ball and hold a high defensive line. That is exactly where Thuram and Martínez thrive as the first line of defence in this well marshalled Inter Milan team. Arsenal want him brave in possession, splitting lines and carrying the ball forward. Against an Inter side that presses from the front with genuine bite, that bravery comes with risk.

Thuram's physicality is a problem in these situations when it comes to committing silly fouls. He uses his long stride to close space quickly, often arriving just late enough to concede a foul when the defender shields the ball. Martínez is more aggressive, buzzing around second balls and nipping in from blind sides.

Together, they create a constant stream of contact that referees can't ignore.

Saliba will be repeatedly engaged by Thuram and Martínez. And with both Inter forwards posting heavy foul-committed numbers, the likelihood of Saliba being taken out of play at least once, or more, rises sharply. That is something that is not factored into his fouls won price with Betfair.

He is 11/10 to be fouled at least once and 11/2 to be fouled two or more times.

My feeling is that centre-backs are far more likely to be fouled than people realise despite most bringing low historical averages to the table. But this is all about match-ups. And the market continues to undervalue situations like this when high volume fouling centre-forwards shape up against centre-backs.

Recommended bets

Back William Saliba to be fouled @ 11/10