Iran and the World Cup: What Happens Now? | OneFootball

Iran is unlikely to play in this summer’s World Cup finals. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has made it impossible, the Minister of Sports and Youth Ahmad Donyamali declared on state television. “Our boys are not safe, and conditions for participation do not exist.”

All three of their group stage games are in the USA, rather than fellow hosts Canada and Mexico, which complicates matters.

FIFA have, publicly anyway, been making every effort to keep the door open for a team that qualified a year ago and has made the last four consecutive World Cups. Iran have been busily preparing to face New Zealand, Belgium and Egypt in Group G. FIFA president Gianni Infantino said US President Donald Trump would welcome Iran and that “we all need an event like the FIFA World Cup to bring people together now more than ever”.

Few will argue with that sentiment, but it’s impossible to realistically see how Iran can compete while the current war between the nations rages. If Iran withdraws, they would be the first team in the competition’s history to pull out at this stage.

As discussed on the Hooligan Sports Road to World Cup 26 podcast this week, Iran not participating opens the door for Iraq – who are due to play in a FIFA play-off later this month – to be given their place.

FIFA chief operating officer Heimo Schirgi has already ruled out cancelling the competition, saying the World Cup was “too big”, so it leaves FIFA with a headache and a team slot to fill.

So what happens now? We assess the options.

Wait and see

The best chance Iran have of competing is for the war to end quickly. FIFA doesn’t want to rush a decision and prepared to bide their time. The next FIFA congress isn’t until April 30th, and it is there where the body would have to decide on some sort of action. So if the war ends and Iran’s new political regime is prepared to play, the door is still open. If the conflict still rages, and with the World Cup six weeks away at that stage, FIFA would be forced to enact a contingency plan to give other teams a fair preparation period.

Promote BOTH play-off teams, or TWO teams from Asia.

On March 31st Iraq, who qualified for the FIFA inter-confederation play-offs from the AFC, will play either Bolivia or Suriname. Those two teams play a semi-final a few days earlier. The winner goes to the World Cup.

But if Iran does not play, there are two places up for grabs and not one. FIFA could just promote both teams. To add to the complications, Iraq have asked FIFA to postpone the game. Airspace restrictions mean they cannot fly out of the country, so would have to take a 25-hour road trip to Turkey and then fly to Guadalupe, Mexico, the hosting venue. They are not willing to do that. FIFA could promote just Iraq and make the Bolivia versus Suriname semi-final a de facto final, with the winner competing at the finals.

A likelier route would involve Iraq playing in the finals regardless. If they win their play-off final they take their rightful place in Group B, alongside Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia. That could see Iran’s Group G space go to the next best Asia confederation team, which would keep the competing numbers from each FIFA confederation as agreed pre-tournament and prevent legal challenges from other confederations. That team would be United Arab Emirates, who lost to Iraq in the previous qualifying round of Asia’s labyrinthine qualifying process.

If Iraq lose the play-off, their opponents go into Group B as planned, and Iraq takes Iran’s place in Group G.

Play Group G with just the three remaining teams.

This is highly unlikely. Reason one: it penalizes all the other groups who have more games to play. Reason two: Group G teams would have an advantage with regards to third place qualification. As they play fewer games than other groups, any final group stage points tally would have to be done on some sort of pro-rata. It’s messy. Reason three: games have been organized and venues booked, so the cost of cancelling fixtures at this stage is huge. FIFA would definitely not want to foot that bill.

What is the precedent here?

There is none, really. No team since 1950 has pulled out of the World Cup tournament once qualified, but that year saw an unprecedented flood of withdrawals. Argentina walked out during the CONMEBOL qualification phase over a row with the Brazilian Football Confederation, along with Ecuador and Peru. France and Turkey both declined invitations due to travel costs and logistics. India was refused permission to play barefoot, and refused to attend. Scotland lost the British Home Championship and stubbornly refused Brazil’s offer. As a result, the 1950 World Cup was played with only 13 instead of the expected 16 teams in the competition. 

A more relevant scenario occurred in the 1992 European Championships. Because of the war in the Balkans, Yugoslavia were disqualified just 10 days before the start of the competition. As runners-up in Yugoslavia’s qualification group, Denmark were given their place and, remarkably, went on to win it.  

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