Italiano: ‘50/50’ for Aston Villa against Bologna despite being ‘superior on paper’ | OneFootball

Vincenzo Italiano believes that Bologna have a ‘50/50’ chance of beating Aston Villa over two legs of their Europa League quarter-final despite the fact that the Premier League side are ‘superior on paper’.

The Rossoblu will host the Villains at the Dall’Ara on Thursday evening for the first leg of their Europa League quarter-final tie. The reverse fixture will be played at Villa Park on April 16.

Bologna claimed a surprise 5-4 aggregate victory over Serie A opponents Roma in the round of 16 in order to qualify for this stage of the competition. Aston Villa, meanwhile, claimed two round of 16 victories over Lille and qualified with a 3-0 aggregate scoreline.

Villa are the odds-on favourites to go on and win the Europa League title this season, but Bologna head coach Italiano believes that ‘anything can happen’ over two legs, and that his side have a ‘50/50’ chance of qualifying for the semi-finals.

Italiano previews Bologna vs. Aston Villa: ‘It’s 50/50’

“It’s 50/50. You all know how complicated this match is, but we have to prove our value, our strength and our qualities,” Italiano said during his pre-match press conference on Wednesday. “We know the opponents because we’ve already faced them twice, but each match tells a different story.

“We will have to manage the game over 180 minutes. Tomorrow is important because the first game gives you the opportunity to set up for the second leg in a certain way. We have every chance to do it. We have to take our chances because it is a big pride to be in the final eight.”

Bologna have the home ‘advantage’ for Thursday’s quarter-final first leg, but oddly that is something that may worry Bologna, who have lost six of the seven Serie A matches that they have played at the Dall’Ara in 2026.

“Tomorrow there will be the obstacle of the stadium and I hope that (the supporters) will give us a big hand to conquer it,” Italiano admitted. “We’re coming in with a lot of enthusiasm having won in Cremona, which has allowed us to prepare well for this match,” he continued.

CREMONA, ITALY – APRIL 05: Joao Mario of Bologna celebrates with teammates after scoring his team’s first goal during the Serie A match between US Cremonese and Bologna FC 1909 at Stadio Giovanni Zini on April 05, 2026 in Cremona, Italy. (Photo by Francesco Scaccianoce/Getty Images)

“We had both the result and the performance in Cremona. I hope to confirm it in a tough and difficult game tomorrow.

“I hope that the supporters will always continue to be with us, as I asked at the beginning of the season. I’ll give the example of Orsolini, who missed a penalty but was applauded. All that has to be protected. On paper, Aston Villa are superior to us, but with everyone’s help, we can overturn the predictions.”

Bologna and Aston Villa have already met twice over the last two seasons, once in the league phase of the Europa League earlier this season and once in the Champions League in 2024-25. Villa won those matches 1-0 and 2-0 respectively, both played at Villa Park.

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 25: Ollie Watkins of Aston Villa takes a penalty which was saved by Lukasz Skorupski of Bologna FC 1909 (not pictured) during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase MD1 match between Aston Villa FC and Bologna FC 1909 at Villa Park on September 25, 2025 in Birmingham, England. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

“The two previous matches were in the ‘qualifying’ rounds, one-off games and at their home. This time we will play for 180 minutes and anything can happen,” said Italiano. “We know their strengths and weaknesses. We’ve always faced them at the beginning of the season, unlike now when we’re nearly at the end.

“They have individual quality and a lot of value. We need an extraordinary performance, but there will definitely be a difference compared to the last two games.”