Italy must beat Israel for play-offs, Sweden main threat to 2026 | OneFootball

Gattuso’s Italy aims to close the group with a win over Israel to lock up second place and reach the playoffs for the 2026 World Cup. Analysis of possible opponents and the full picture of European qualifying.

Italy, beat Israel to reach World Cup playoffs: Sweden the number one threat on the road to USA 2026

Norway’s emphatic win over Israel has reduced Italy’s remaining hopes of finishing first in the group—the only spot granting direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup, to be held in the USA, Mexico, and Canada.

Gennaro Gattuso’s Azzurri are therefore forced, for the third time in a row, to go through the playoffs, but first they need to finish the group properly. Tuesday night’s clash in Udine against Israel will be decisive to secure second place and then focus on the March 2026 matches that will award the final European berths.

“Our destiny is in our hands,” Gattuso said on the eve of the match. “We want to wrap this up right away and prepare calmly for the playoffs.”

The directly qualified teams and groups already taking shape

With two matchdays still to play, nine of the twelve European groups are close to determining their winners. Among them are:

Switzerland (B)

France (D)

Spain (E)

Portugal (F)

Netherlands (G)

Austria (H)

Norway (I)

England (K)

Croatia (L)

In the remaining three groups, the situation is still open. Germany are favored in Group A, while in Group C Denmark seem to have the edge over Scotland. The race is tighter in Group J, where Belgium remain in pole position.

Group runners-up: Italy’s potential opponents

It will be the runners-up from each group, along with four teams from the Nations League, who will compete for the four available playoff spots.

Here is the updated situation across the twelve groups:

A: Northern Ireland back in contention, Slovakia slipping

B: Sweden favored over Kosovo and Slovenia

C: Scotland ahead, barring surprises

D: Ukraine on the rise after the win in Iceland

E: Montella’s Turkey ahead of Georgia

F: Hungary a step ahead of Armenia

G: Solid Poland with Lewandowski and company

H: Bosnia on top, but Romania reignite hopes

I: Italy and Israel in the race, Azzurri favored

J: North Macedonia ahead of Wales

K: Albania, but Serbia need a result against England

L: Czech Republic favored against Gibraltar

The Nations League entrants

Joining the twelve groups are the four best teams from the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League that did not secure direct qualification or finish second in their group.

At present, the entrants would be: Wales, Romania, Moldova, and San Marino (based on conditions still to be confirmed).

2026 World Cup playoffs: pots and draw

The playoff draw is scheduled for November 21, 2025. The 16 teams will be divided into four pots, determined by the FIFA ranking and group results.

Current pots:

Pot 1: Italy, Turkey, Ukraine, Poland

Pot 2: Sweden, Scotland, Hungary, Czech Republic

Pot 3: Slovakia, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia

Pot 4: Wales, Romania, Moldova, San Marino

The semifinals will be played on March 26, 2026, as single-leg ties hosted by the higher-seeded team. The finals, which award World Cup berths, will be played on March 31.

Sweden, the number one threat for Italy

Among Italy’s potential opponents, Sweden are considered the biggest threat. If they fail to secure second place in Group B, they would enter the playoffs from Pot 4, becoming a hurdle as early as the semifinals.

A potential clash with the Scandinavians recalls the dramatic 2017 playoff, when the Azzurri were eliminated at San Siro, missing out on the World Cup in Russia.

Toward the Washington draw

On December 5, 2025, in Washington, the draw for the 2026 World Cup group stage will take place—the first with 48 participating teams. However, the last four European qualifiers will only be known after the March playoffs.

Italy hopes to be there, to erase the disappointments of 2018 and 2022 and finally return to the world stage.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.