Italy’s direct World Cup qualification almost impossible after Norway 4-1 Estonia | OneFootball

It is now almost mathematically impossible for the Italy national team to qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup, as Norway’s 4-1 win over Estonia means that the Azzurri require two victories and a swing of 20 goals from their next two matches to avoid the play-offs.

Norway defeated Estonia 4-1, scoring four goals within 12 minutes of the second half thanks to braces from Alexander Sorloth and Erling Haaland, which keeps their 100% win record in World Cup qualifying intact.

Italy, meanwhile, will take on Moldova at 19.45 GMT, requiring a miracle to overtake Norway into first place.

You can follow the action from Moldova vs. Italy on the Football lItalia liveblog. 

UDINE – OCTOBER 14: Players pose for a team photograph prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match against Israel at Stadio Friuli on October 14, 2025 in Udine. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Italy require a miracle to overtake Norway in World Cup qualifying

As things stand, Norway sit at the top of qualification Group I with a perfect record of 21 points from seven games. Italy are second, and mathematically cannot finish any lower, with a tally of 15 points from six matches. They will play against Moldova at 19.45 GMT on Thursday evening.

OSLO, NORWAY – NOVEMBER 13: Erling Haaland of Norway celebrates scoring his team’s third goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Norway and Estonia at Ullevaal Stadion on November 13, 2025 in Oslo, Norway. (Photo by Marius Nordnes / Nordnes Foto/Getty Images)

The situation means that Italy can only finish at the top of Group I if they beat both Moldova Thursday and Norway on Sunday, and they also need a gargantuan swing on goal difference.

Norway’s goal difference stands at +29 after their 4-1 win over Estonia, while Italy’s is at +10.

That means that Gennaro Gattuso’s side effectively need at least 20 goals from their next two matches in order to avoid the World Cup play-offs.