Jones Knows Notebook: Back mid-season 15/1 outright accumulator across English leagues | OneFootball

A tradition within football punting circles is to have a play a big price accumulator at the start of the season across the Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two. It's a fun way of building a bit of enthusiasm and excitement for the season ahead, gives you something to cheer on week-to-week and occasionally is a smart way of combining some great value in the pre-season markets.

However, this period we're in now is an even better time to jump on an accumulator in the outright markets.

Welcome to mid-season.

A time where rolling the dice on a long-shot ante-post accumulator across the Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two, is very much encouraged by this punter.

Remember, at the start of the season, we're betting blind. New managers, new systems, new signings bedding in and wildly optimistic narratives being priced as if they're facts.

By mid-season, the noise has gone. What's left is evidence. Teams have played 20-25 games. Home and away splits are clear. Expected goals trends are established. You're no longer guessing what a team might be, you're betting on what they are.

Such is the array of outright markets at our disposal with Betfair it's still a great time to take some positions and combine them across leagues.

There are examples of teams priced like mid-table outfits despite top-six underlying numbers, promotion contenders still treated as play-off hopefuls and relegation-threatened teams still clinging to summer expectation which in turn is holding up their price.

Here, I've picked four angles, with a selection in each of the top four UK leagues, to combine and hopefully ride a wave of betting excitement across the last four months of the season.

Premier League - Chelsea top six finish

Chelsea are a bit of puzzle. A ridiculously talented squad yet one that is emotionally fragile and prone to disappearing when things get uncomfortable.

That's why the appointment of Liam Rosenior could be just what they need in the short-term. Rosenior is a communicator, someone that cares about players. A modern coach who speaks the language of young men, who builds trust before he builds structures.

At this stage of Chelsea's season, that's exactly what's required. A belief injector.

Chelsea have already shown their ceiling this season, beating Liverpool and Barcelona, holding Arsenal with 10-men and grabbing a deserved point at Manchester City.

At the time of writing Chelsea are one point off the top six and have Manchester United and Brentford above them in the standings - two teams Chelsea should outpoint between now and May.

Championship - Watford top six finish

There is a slight case of missing the boat with Watford this season. After being beaten at Birmingham at the start of December, a top six finish on the Betfair Exchange was being matched at 6.2. They are now 1.75.

Watford's recent run - five wins from their last seven Championship games - isn't a random spike.

It's the pay-off for a process that's been bubbling away beneath the surface for months. Javi Gracia has got a very exciting forward line and is using his skillset to make their defensive process one of the meanest around.

An expected goals against process of 0.65 across their last four games - all wins - is title winning levels of performance. Even though their price has crashed, markets can still be slow to price momentum that's backed by data rather than hype. A top six finish looks nailed on for this team if continuing this trajectory.

League One - Stockport to win promotion

Dave Challinor and Stockport are a combination you want firmly on your side when the season approaches the business end.

What really matters in the run-in is trust. Trust in habits. Trust in leadership. Trust in how a team behaves when the pressure tightens.

Across the last two seasons, Stockport County's record in games played after February 20th reads: P29 W19 D8 L2.

When promotion races heat up, when legs are heavy, knees weak and there's vomit on sweaters, Stockport don't wobble, they accelerate. And that starts with the man on the touchline.

Challinor is built to thrive in such scenarios.

In his last 15 full seasons as a manager at Colwyn Bay, AFC Fylde, Hartlepool United and now Stockport, Challinor has never finished outside of the play-offs.

Incredibly, Challinor is hunting down the eighth promotion of his managerial career.

He has them perfectly positioned to pounce in fourth place in League One, just six points off Lincoln in second whose defensive process is way below the usual standard of promotion winners. Regression is expected there.

Promotion king Challinor is waiting to strike.

League Two - Barnet top seven finish

The winners of the Conference are always a team to watch in the markets for promotion when making the step up to League Two. Barnet rampaged to the title last season but a quick look at the League Two table after 24 games, which sees them occupying 11th spot, would suggest their ability to transfer their form up a level has stalled.

This is where the expected goals data can be a goldmine for punters as it shows this Barnet team have a performance level/underlying process which has them ranked as a promotion challenger.

According to the expected points models, Barnet have underperformed by almost eight points this season and their expected points per game ratio of 1.77 is the second best in the league.

A mere continuation of this level of form plus a little bit of variance to drop their way should see them climb the league and make up the current five point gap to the top seven.