Jones Knows Notebook: Fall in love with PSG all over again at 7/1 | OneFootball

PSG are still best outright Champions League bet

There's always a danger when a team wins you a stack of cash that you start seeing them through rose-tinted glasses. Never go back, they say.

And, I'll admit it - that might be the case here. Heart is winning the battle with head when it comes to pulling the trigger on this bet.

Last season, this column landed a 18/1 Champions League winner with Paris Saint‑Germain and ever since that glorious night, they've held a special place in my punting heart. When a team delivers a moment like that for you, which personally was my biggest ever ante post success, it's hard not to fall in love with them.

On each occasion this season, when I've sat down to analyse this year's outright Champions League market on the Betfair Exchange and PSG jumped out at me, I had to check myself. Was I thinking with my head, or my wallet's fond memories?

Until now, I've managed to resist the urge. Those who listen to Betfair's Football Only Bettor podcast will be well aware of the deliberations I've had with myself about jumping on PSG. However, watching PSG rampage past Chelsea in the first leg of their last 16 tie, the time is right to rekindle my love affair with this team.

Any team that lands you a 18/1 winner will always have a little space in your punting heart. But even when I try to strip that emotion away and analyse the market coldly, I end up in the same place.

After going through the numbers, the draw and the psychological side of this competition, I kept coming back to the same conclusion: PSG have to be the bet at 8.0.

Course and distance form matters

The Champions League isn't just about quality, it's about experience of navigating the unique pressure of this competition.

We see it every season. Teams that have been there, felt those knockout-round nerves, handled hostile away atmospheres and delivered under the brightest lights tend to keep coming back to the business end. I'm looking at you, Real Madrid.

But PSG tick that box too. They are the reigning champions, they've climbed the mountain already and crucially, the spine of that squad remains intact. The core group that handled the biggest moments last season are still there and that familiarity with what it takes in April and May is worth plenty.

When the pressure cranks up and the margins become microscopic, some teams shrink. PSG do the opposite. Their press becomes more intense. Their ruthlessness in the final third steps up a notch. When they absolutely have to produce, they tend to find a way.

That's a priceless trait in this tournament.

PSG are 1.08 to make the quarter-finals after dismantling Chelsea 5-2 last week. Barring one of the great collapses, they are effectively already planning for the next round.

And the next round looks very manageable.

PSG are set to face the winner of Galatasaray and Liverpool.

Now, a tie with Liverpool obviously commands respect. European nights against them rarely come quietly.

But this isn't the same Liverpool machine we saw storm to the Premier League title last season under Arne Slot.

They're still a strong team, but the aura has dipped. Performances this season have been far more inconsistent and there are vulnerabilities there that top sides can expose.

PSG also carry a psychological edge. They beat Liverpool over two legs in last season's Champions League, and that was when Liverpool were operating at their peak under Slot. Having that experience in the bank matters in knockout football.

Friday 1 May, 5.45pm

Bayern Munich

Back 4.5

Lay 4.6

Paris St-G

Lay 8.2

Barcelona

Back 8

Lay 8.2

Real Madrid

Back 11.5

Lay 12

Liverpool

Lay 15.5

Atletico Madrid

Back 22

Lay 23

Man City

Lay 44

Bodo Glimt

Back 60

Lay 65

Newcastle

Back 70

Lay 75

Chelsea

Back 110

Lay 120

Galatasaray

Back 160

Lay 170

Leverkusen

Back 170

Lay 180

Tottenham

Back 280

Lay 300

Sporting

Back 340

Lay 450

Atalanta

Back 1000

PSG are better bet than Arsenal in Champions League

Of course, when you're backing a bigger price in an outright market, you need some doubts around the teams shorter in the betting.

Right now, it's Arsenal who head the market at around 3.7 on the Betfair Exchange.

On paper, you can see why.

They've got a very favourable draw and their underlying numbers this season have been extremely strong, especially defensively. From a pure performance-data standpoint, they look like a team capable of winning the competition.

But knockout football isn't played on spreadsheets.

There are still big-night mentality questions hovering over this group. When the pressure is at its absolute peak and they have to win, Arsenal haven't consistently shown the ruthless streak required at this level.

We've seen talented teams reach this stage before only to discover that the Champions League has a different psychological exam attached to it.

Until Arsenal prove they can pass that test repeatedly, I'm not rushing to back them at the head of the market.

Sometimes the smartest bet is simply trusting the team that's already shown they know how to win it. And PSG have already proved they do. At this price, I'm more than happy to fall in love with them all over again.