Jones Knows Notebook: Game-state makes Club Brugge a cracking corner bet at 5/4 | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Back Club Brugge in corner race, says Jones Knows

Corners markets are all about intent and game-state and Lewis Jones thinks he's found a great betting angle to attack on Wednesday's Champions League final matchday involving Club Brugge...

Permutations are pointers for great bets

A football match is rarely just a football match in my world. They are puzzles.

There are many pieces required to complete a puzzle and that's exactly how my brain operates as a starting point for trying to find value in the markets. Form guide, expected goals numbers, team news snippets, tactical match ups are all part of such puzzle but a crucial ingredient pops up now and again in matches that can offer such profitable pathways: permutations.

Who needs to win? Who can't afford to lose? Who would secretly accept a draw and move on?

This should be front and centre off all football punters minds this Wednesday for the madcap evening of Champions League Matchday 8. It's an overwhelming set of fixtures to ponder but concentrating on fixtures where betting strategies can be used based on the permutations makes life a little easier in terms of clarity.

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Must-win Brugge set to outcorner Marseille in crunch clash

Club Brugge vs Marseille is great betting heat to attack. We have a simple case here of team that must win to stay alive playing an opponent that doesn't.

Marseille are 1/40 to finish in the top 24, therefore securing themselves a play-off place whilst Club Brugge need three points to stand any chance of making the play-offs. It's a 6/4 chance with the Betfair Sportsbook that they make it.

I really like backing teams in Club Brugge's spot where they know what they need to do. The market consistently underestimates the edge of clarity - it doesn't factor that in enough when assessing the odds in these situations.

Game-state is such a dominating factor when analysing football and it's unusual to find such predictable ones like we have here. It's a great opportunity for us bettors. Must-win games are not average environments and the market does find it difficult to price up that factor. Situations like those Club Brugge find themselves in cause a more attack-minded approach, more risks and that leads to betting opportunities.

My go-to strategy in situations like this is to almost blindly back the team that needs to win, in the corner markets.

Odds can often lag behind motivation-based angles, especially in niche markets like corners. This type of scenario is very difficult for the oddsmakers to factor into this market where its priced by algorithms of corner data. This is where the edge lies, as I'm expecting Brugge to play very aggressively, post shots, get the ball forward and that should result in corners.

They should be favourites in the most corner race market based on the game-state but we can get 5/4 on them winning the most corners in the match whilst Marseille are at 5/6. That's the wrong price.

The correct price based on the permutations should be the opposite with Club Brugge odds-on. That presents a fantastic edge for us to exploit and it should be backed accordingly.

Now read more Champions League tips and previews for the final round of group games

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Back Club Brugge to win corner race @ 5/4