Jones Knows Notebook: Rico Lewis goalscorer value, upsurge in Premier League fouls | OneFootball

English Premier League

Pep's young defender Rico Lewis is a goalscoring threat for Man City

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - pinpointed Sam Morsy's early season card tendancies at 21/10 last weekend and is back with his weekly notebook where he hunts out developing Premier League trends and betting angles to exploit...

Lewis offers huge goalscorer value for Man City

Rico Lewis is making the right-back spot his own for Manchester City and his early season performances has triggered an England call-up. He is extraordinarily intelligent and gifted for a player of his age and his movement to join the City attacks has stood out in the opening three games where he is joining Erling Haaland in the box, almost as a second striker.

He has had a whopping 18 touches in the opposition box - the 15th most of any player in the Premier League so far. He's also made 13 runs into the box and the two shots he's had have both been declared as "big chances" by Opta totalling 0.63 worth of expected goals.

His effort against Ipswich hit the crossbar and he fired off target against West Ham with just the goalkeeper to beat. This aggressive and dynamic play is going to see his shots and goals output spike over the next few weeks where his prices remain full of juice. For example, he was 12/1 to score anytime with Betfair against West Ham.

Fouls to the fore in Premier League openers

A big part of punting armoury in 2024 is trying to spot value in the fouls committed market.

Betfair are always very reliable and offer great margins for punters in this type of market where backing players to commit a certain number of fouls can offer great betting opportunities. The early signs in the Premier League have been very positive in terms of foul counts. Small sample size yes, of just 30 games played, but the 23.9 fouls per game average is going along at a record rate for the Premier League. Last year's total of 22.12 was the highest season average since 2016/17 as the increase in teams who like to press added to more emphasis on tactical fouling to slow down an opponent's rhythm is certainly apparent in the Premier League.

When the player match-up looks ripe for fouls and type of game on offer looks set to be a foul frenzy, attacking Betfair's foul prop markets should continue to be a path to profit this season.

English Premier League - Top 10 Fouls

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Under 2.5 goals theory worth following in EFL

The 12.30pm Saturday kick-off slot has always got my betting cogs turning in this brain of mine. For a punter like me who likes nothing more to stomach an unders based bet and believes there remains strong long-term value in opposing goals in football matches, the theory behind this kick-off slot affecting the flow and rhythm of a game has plenty of weight.

here has been a significant change in the way EFL games are being broadcast this season with more games than ever being live on Sky Sports. In order to avoid the 3pm blackout area, more games are being moved to the 12.30pm slot and there are some exciting early trends to latch onto.

Whether it's players struggling to adjust to the earlier kick-off time or atmospheres not quite being at peak levels, the early evidence suggests these games are averaging low goal totals. The raw numbers show when assessing the 29 games to have kicked off in the EFL at 12.30pm this season the goal average per game has been exactly 2.00. That is 0.61 down on the overall average which stands at 2.61 per game so far this season when analysing all games across the Premier League and EFL.

Those that have spotted this angle already will be making money on the under 2.5 line as 22 of the 29 games have seen less than three goals. For example, all three Championship matches last Saturday at 12.30pm landed for under 2.5 backers at 1.85 in Burnley vs Blackburn, 1.9 in Cardiff vs Middlesbrough and 2.2 in Coventry vs Norwich. The treble paid just under 7/1.

There are seven 12.30pm kick-offs scheduled for Saturday 14 September - there are none this weekend as the 3pm blackout is lifted during an international break so every club are accessible to watch live on Sky Sports. I'd advise punters to look very closely at those seven fixtures and if a case for a low scoring game can be made, don't be afraid to bet it with confident stakes.

The standout bet at this early stage where the markets are live comes in the clash between Millwall and Luton where 4/5 is on offer for under 2.5 goals. Rob Edwards is under pressure at Luton after a torrid start to the campaign and a change in style from the man-to-man expansive game to a more basic, defensive style of football could be on the cards. That should affect the total goal average.

Back Under 2.5 goals in Millwall v Luton @ 4/5