Jones Knows Notebook: Take the 10/11 and 9/2 on Yerson Mosquera's shots lines for Wolves | OneFootball

English Premier League

Lewis is backing Yerson Mosquera in shots market with Betfair

Fresh from nailing a Harry Kane fouls angle last week, Lewis Jones is back with his Notebook column and unleashes a set piece inspired bet to attack when Wolves host Nottingham Forest on Wednesday...

Listen to Football...Only Bettor!

Manager change brings forward opportunties

When a club changes its manager, bookmakers typically apply a broad, cautious approach in adjusting the goal expectancies and win ratios depending on the data associated with the new manager coming in.

But rarely do they rebuild the props markets. And that's where we find value.

New managers bring new priorities, new patterns, and - my favourite angle - new set-piece habits. Some coaches barely bother with dead-ball routines. Others obsess over them. It's in fashion of course in the Premier Legue this season. If you can spot an angle before the market wakes up, you're beating the numbers.

At Wolves, Rob Edwards has wasted no time establishing a set-piece focus. His teams have always been well-drilled in this department, and early signs suggest he's transplanting that philosophy straight into Molineux.

His Luton team ranked as the best team in the Championship from set piece goals scored and expected goals output in both spells in that league, while his Forest Green side ranked second for expected goals from set pieces during their promotion from League Two.

We have seen this play out already in Wolves' two games under Edwards.

A set piece expected goals output of 1.27 is a very healthy return in just two matches with Crystal Palace and Aston Villa. The centre-backs didn't just stroll up for corners, they attacked them from routines that looked pre-planned. Edwards is allocating real emphasis, real structure and real zones for his big men to target now - something that was lacking under Vitor Pereira.

How do we profit?

The player shot and goals markets look to carry significant potential for profit when utilising this theory.

The shots markets are built on historical data, averages, trends and expected involvement. But a new manager can rip up the sample size. Edwards has done exactly that.

Across the previous three seasons, Yerson Mosquera is only averaging 0.6 shots per match and that is what is dictating his price for Wolves' clash with Nottingham Forest on Wednesday. The market will eventually react, but it will need longer-term evidence. And that means we're in a window where the input has changed but the price hasn't.

Mosquera has the attributes to be a big threat from such situations - he's tall, athletic and aerially competitive - and those qualities have been spotted by Edwards, based on how prominent Mosquera was in Wolves' set-piece structure in the defeat at Villa.

10/11 for one or more and 9/2 for two or more.

Now read more Premier League tips

Recommended bets

Back Back Yerson Mosquera +1 shots @ 10/11

Back Back Yerson Mosquera +2 shots @ 9/2

New Customers can get £50 in free bets!