Jones Knows Notebook: Teams to back, lay and avoid in Premier League relegation betting

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·14 October 2025

Jones Knows Notebook: Teams to back, lay and avoid in Premier League relegation betting

English Premier League

Lewis reveals which Premier League teams to back and lay for relegation

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This weekend could be pivotal in the Betfair Exchange's Premier League relegation market which is shaping up to be fun to play says Lewis Jones who is hunting for value...

Lewis looks for relegation value on Betfair Exchange
Wolves have the tools and data to escape trouble
Black Cats' season could sour when big clubs bite
Key weekend of fixtures starts with Burnley v Leeds
Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!

Wave goodbye to the fake enthusiasm surrounding the World Cup qualification process, it's time to get properly stuck in again as domestic football returns. This weekend could be a pivotal one in the Premier League, too, especially at the bottom.

Early indications suggest the race to avoid relegation this season will be a fun market to follow and play in on the Betfair Exchange.

With Burnley v Leeds and Sunderland v Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday, before Brentford travel to West Ham United for a Monday night London derby, it is an apt time to assess the lay of the relegation land.

What is the Betfair Exchange saying about relegation?

The relegation picture is tightening fast and the odds are painting a clear picture of who's feeling the heat.

Looking at the Betfair Exchange, Burnley are trading at 1.35 - the market's way of saying survival would still now be a minor miracle. Wolves follow at 1.7, their attacking struggles and inability to see out games clearly hampering their progress.

Just above them, Sunderland and West Ham, both at 2.8, have opposite trajectories on current form.

Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest 3.7 are the main market movers having been as big as 19.5 after their opening day win over Brentford.

Finally, Leeds 5.0 and Brentford 5.5 aren't safe either, although both have shown signs that their physicality and robustness might just be their saving grace.

So, where is the value? Let's play a game of 'back, lay or no bet' to assess each team's current price.

Burnley 1.35 - No bet

Pats on the head but not enough points - that's been Burnley's season so far.

Scott Parker's side have been organised and together without the ball, helped by the shrewd captures of Kyle Walker and Martin Dubravka. However, there is a feeling that Parker is getting the maximum performance level out of this squad and it's still left them short of the required standard.

Beating fellow newly-promoted teams is always a key factor in survival - something they've done already via their home win over Sunderland. Leeds this weekend at Turf Moor is a real sliding doors game for Burnley's season.

Wolves 1.7 - Lay

The market might be ready to write Wolves off at 1.7 for the drop but I'm not.

Scratch beneath the surface, and there's a case to be made that this side have far more in the tank than the league table currently shows. Wolves have taken just two points from seven games but the expected points, based on their underlying metrics provided by Opta, show they should have seven points in the bag.

That type of gulf usually evens itself out across a season. And it is something to profit from.

The chances are being created in attack and restricted to a good level in defence, so it's just the finishing touch of the Wolves strikers and very efficient finishing of opposition strikers that has been costing them in what is a fine margin sport. When a little bit of regression to the mean kicks in, results will follow.

Plus, João Gomes and Andre bring physicality, energy, and bite - the sort of edge that wins second balls and keeps teams alive when the pressure mounts. Few sides in the bottom half can match Wolves' ability to turn games into a contest of sheer intensity. Vitor Pereira has kept the Wolves faithful believing in him too.

An upsurge in results looks on the horizon so now is the time to jump on their survival chances by laying their relegation price.

Sunderland 2.8 - Back

Not many of us saw Sunderland's early-season swagger coming, me included. They have been crisp, confident and clinical, led by Granit Xhaka in the engine room. The early signs are that they can aim much higher than sheer survival but football has a way of levelling you out and can change very quickly.

The Black Cats have drifted to 2.8 in the relegation market having been matched as short as 1.22.

That current price to go down is edging toward backable territory, especially when you look at their brutal fixture list between now and Christmas. They've only played Crystal Palace from the current top nine in the standings meaning in December they play Manchester City twice, Liverpool and Brighton away as well as the derby at home to Newcastle.

Momentum in this league is a cruel thing to lose and such is Sunderland's lack of firepower in attack, that could bite them.

West Ham 2.8 - No bet

West Ham are in 'season defining' territory this weekend with their home clash with Brentford on Monday Night Football.

The Hammers are winless in eight home Premier League games, a run that played a huge part in Graham Potter losing his job. It's their longest winless run since moving to the London Stadium and, in its current miserable guise, the place feels a world away from Upton Park.

That's why the West Ham board had no choice to change the manager. When you're knee-deep in a relegation scrap, you don't need talk of "underlying numbers" - you need street-fighting survival football.

Nuno Espirito Santo brings exactly that. Call it what you want - reactive, pragmatic and at times boring - but it's effective when backs are against the wall. West Ham need points and Nuno will bag them plenty based on his body of work.

Nottingham Forest 3.7 - No bet

Trying to predict what is around the corner for Nottingham Forest is almost impossible based on the early season comedy show they've been treating us too.

They are more than capable of surviving in this league but, such has been the upheaval and unnecessary shift in style in appointing Ange Postecoglou, the players look lost and bereft of belief. If that type of mentality is allowed to fester for too long then they could be in serious trouble. But the current price has that factored in.

Leeds 5.0 - No bet

Leeds got their summer recruitment spot on and are reaping the benefits after taking eight points from seven games. Their summer recruitment was all about upping the physical ante.

Out went the lightweight technical types and in came players who relish a tackle, press with power and win the ugly moments. The additions of Anton Stach, Sean Longstaff, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Gabriel Gudmundsson have completely changed the team's profile.

Those performances, particularly at Elland Road, have created a sense of optimism about their chances of survival. It's hard to see them getting dragged in.

Brentford 5.5 - No bet

Much like Leeds, Brentford are purposely built to win points in the Premier League by focusing on their directness and desire to win duels.

Keith Andrews is obviously a smart cookie. He hasn't tried to rewrite the tactical blueprint at the club or change the culture - he's kept the same core principles that club thrived at under Thomas Frank. This still looks like a Frank team. And Frank's teams stayed up pretty comfortably in the Premier League. They should be fine.