Jones Knows Notebook: With or without you? Why key team news is so important in Premier League | OneFootball

English Premier League

Man City midfielder Rodri is out for the season

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - discusses just how important and undervalued certain players are to certain teams in the Premier League as he returns with his weekly Notebook...

Man City flatter to decieve without Rodri

Such is the way we gush over players, it's easy to forget sometimes that football is a team sport and being able to generate chemistry within a group is so important to that output of a team.

However, individuals still can make a huge difference in how a team is going to perform.

Team news affects prices - that's common knowledge. But, as we've seen this weekend, certain players' availability isn't affecting the market as much as it should which can create inflated prices for us punters to exploit if we can quantify the importance of that player to a team's performance level.

This 'with and without' data has been plastered all over various media outlets this week to paint the picture of just how much Manchester City would miss Rodri. The champions have not lost any of their last 48 Premier League matches in which he has featured and without him their win percentage in the Premier League drops from 76% to 61%.

One game in since his injury and those numbers of a decrease in results from City look like having some substance as we look further ahead.

Pep Guardiola's men didn't look themselves at Newcastle.

Rarely do they allow teams back into a match having taken a lead but just one ball through the middle of their defence allowed Anthony Gordon to scamper through and win his penalty.

And rarely have City looked so toothless in the final third. Yes, Newcastle's low block did their job but this is a team that have averaged 1.86 expected goals against per 90 for the last 34 Premier League games. City's output of creating just 0.91 was bitterly disappointing. It was just the seventh time since the start of last season that City had fallen below the 1.00 mark in terms of their expected goals output.

The eye test backed up the low chance creation numbers. There was no kitchen sink - barely even a fork was thrown as they hunted victory in the closing stages. It was only Jack Grealish that truly carried a threat as he continues to find his best form again. Apart from Grealish, there was a lack of intensity and bite to City's approach play, much the same that was on show in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal.

It's the Gunners that are now Premier League title favourites at 2.58 on the Betfair Exchange as City's price continues to slide, out to 3.15, since the Rodri injury.

Branthwaite return ignites Everton

Jarrad Branthwaite made a heroes return from injury for Everton against Crystal Palace which coincided with the Toffees first win of the campaign. It was no coincidence.

He's missed 11 games for Everton since the start of last season with Sean Dyche's side conceding 1.9 goals per 90 without him. His influence was there for all the see at Goodison Park on Saturday. In the last 38 games he has started, Everton's goals against average is at just 1.3 per 90, showcasing just what an important role he plays alongside James Tarkowski, whose performance improved greatly with having his talented and assured partner back at the heart of the defence.

On the numbers, him being available is almost worth 0.6 of a goal. It's Newcastle at Goodison Park next.

Brighton crumble without star man Van Hecke

We also learnt this weekend that Brighton have a centre-back who is crucial to their ability to perform to their maximum under Fabian Hurzeler. They were without Jan Paul van Hecke at Chelsea and boy did their defensive line crumble. His partnership with Lewis Dunk is so important to making sure the high line for Brighton functions. Adam Webster replaced him at Stamford Bridge and showed he isn't capable of playing Hurzerler's aggressive style of football. The manager even admitted that he got it wrong selecting Webster in that role after Brighton's bonkers defeat.

Brighton have now been without Van Hecke for 12 games since the start of last season and the Seagulls have shipped 28 goals, working out at an average of exactly two goals per game. When he starts, a sample size of 31 games, Brighton concede just 1.4 goals per game and their win percentage increases from 25% to 36%.

Van Hecke faces a race to be fit for next Sunday at home to Tottenham. If he doesn't make it, then Spurs at 2.48 for the away win look an early spot of value.

Are Forest a one man team?

And there was also Morgan Gibbs-White at Nottingham Forest. Now an England international, the secret is out about just how talented, mature and reliable the cultured attacking midfielder has become. Forest were flat without him yet again as they lost at home to Fulham.

Gibbs-White has now missed eight games since Forest were promoted and they've lost six of those, scoring just five times in the process and averaging just 0.8 expected goals per 90. He makes them tick and drives them forward. Thankfully for Nuno Espirito Santo, his main man is back from his suspension next weekend away at Chelsea.

Recommended bets