Kevin Hatchard European Tips: Back PSG and Roma wins, and Bayer to march on | OneFootball

European Football Tips

We're taking in games from France, Germany and Italy

After making a profit last week, Kevin Hatchard's back with another trio of European bets, including the big Sunday night game in Italy...

Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

Monaco v PSG - Champs to overcome Pogba and company

Saturday 29 November, 16:00Live on Ligue 1 Pass

It's been a long road back to the pitch for Paul Pogba, a journey full of misfortune and self-inflicted wounds. The World Cup winner spent over two years away from the game because of a drugs ban (Pogba says he unwittingly took a supplement that contained a banned substance), and Monaco have been careful to build up his fitness before allowing him to return. A brief cameo against Rennes last weekend was followed by a watching brief, as he looked on from the bench as Monaco twice surrendered the lead in a 2-2 draw at Pafos in the Champions League.

Monaco need a good news story in a season where they have already made a coaching change. Adi Hütter was somewhat harshly given his marching orders, and there's little evidence so far that poaching Sebastien Pocognoli from Belgian champions Union Saint-Gilloise will do the trick for ASM. Heading into the weekend, Monaco are ten points behind the leaders and champions PSG.

Luis Enrique's table-toppers recovered from a couple of scares to eventually overwhelm Tottenham 5-3 in midweek, as Vitinha took over the game with an impeccable display. The diminutive Portuguese midfielder crashed in a hat-trick that featured a penalty and two long-range strikes.

PSG have rarely sparkled in Ligue 1 in the way they have in the Champions League, but they have still lost just once (a defeat at closest challengers Marseille) and they should have too much for a Monaco team that has won just one of its last five games. On home soil, Les Monegasques have won just one of the last six in all competitions.

I'll back PSG -1.0 on the Asian Handicap here at 1.98. A one-goal win for PSG sees our stake returned, but a bigger win nets us a payout at nearly evens. Eight of PSG's 19 games have finished with a win for the European champions by a multiple-goal margin.

Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund - Bayer to avoid defeat

Saturday 29 November, 17:30Live on Sky Sports Football

Bayer Leverkusen made an extraordinary false start to the campaign, as the hapless Erik ten Hag alienated players and club bosses alike before he was sent packing just three competitive games into the season. His replacement Kasper Hjulmand has managed to repair some of the damage, and a midweek win at Manchester City was the high point of the season so far.

Leverkusen have claimed 22 points from nine games under the Danish coach in the Bundesliga, and their win against a much-changed City at the Etihad will give a largely young squad a big confidence boost.

Borussia Dortmund swept aside Villarreal in midweek in the Champions League, but their last two Bundesliga assignments have ended in frustration, as they have conceded last-gasp equalisers to Hamburg and Stuttgart. Last weekend's clash with VfB was particularly painful, as Dortmund let slip 2-0 and 3-2 leads.

I'll combine Leverkusen/Draw Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals here at 2.14 on the Bet Builder. That gives us 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 Leverkusen wins, as well as the 0-0 and 1-1 draws. Bayer's only defeats under Hjulmand have been against PSG and Bayern, and they can match Dortmund stride for stride here.

Roma v Napoli - League leaders can take another step

Sunday 30 November, 19:45

While many people expected Gian Piero Gasperini to be a success at Roma, not many anticipated that the Giallorossi would be top of the table, and they certainly wouldn't have predicted that a Gasperini team would have the best defence in the division. Roma have leaked just six goals in their first 12 Serie A games, and yet their attacking record is the second-worst of teams in the top ten, which is unthinkable when you consider Gasperini's freewheeling Atalanta teams.

Roma have won nine of their 12 league games, but it's worth noting that two of those defeats were against Inter and Milan, so there's a point to prove here against the champions Napoli. Roma's issues in the big games predate Gasperini, and competing with the big hitters will be critical to their title hopes.

Napoli lost 2-0 at Bologna in their last away game in Serie A, a defeat that sparked a tantrum from coach Antonio Conte, who hinted at his usual threat to walk out. He was talked around during the international break, and home wins over Atalanta and Qarabag have put smiles back on faces at the Maradona. However, Napoli's away form is atrocious, with five defeats in the last six away trips.

We can back Roma Draw No Bet here at 1.85, and I think that's the way to go. A home win nets us profit, and our stake is returned if the game is drawn. With Napoli's dreadful away form and Roma adapting so quickly to what Gasperini wants, backing a home win seems a sensible play.

Recommended bets