Kevin Hatchard's European Tips: Back resurgent Real to win and concede | OneFootball

Real Madrid v Elche - Resurgent Real to stay on track

Saturday 14 March, 20:00

Wednesday's extraordinary 3-0 win over Manchester City featured a Real Madrid performance that few saw coming. Alvaro Arbeloa convinced his players to produce a display full of cohesion, effort and technical quality, and it ended up being by far Los Blancos' most effective and impressive showing of the entire season. They managed it without a host of key players including Kylian Mbappe, Eder Militao, Alvaro Carreras and Jude Bellingham.

Skipper Fede Valverde produced an individual performance for the ages, netting a stunning first-half hat-trick. He doubled his career tally of Champions League goals in under 45 minutes, and helped Trent Alexander-Arnold to lock down City winger Jeremy Doku.

Now Madrid turn their attention back to the La Liga title race, and Arbeloa's men are four points adrift of leaders Barcelona after last weekend's last-gasp victory over Celta Vigo at Balaidos. Madrid have won eight of their last nine competitive matches at the Bernabeu, and usefully for our purposes, five of those eight wins saw both teams score.

Elche made a strong start to the La Liga campaign, avoiding defeat in their first seven matches. However, they have since lost 11 of their 20 top-flight outings, and have tumbled down to fourth-bottom in the standings. Eder Sarabia's side are just a point above the dropzone.

I'll happily back Real Madrid to win and BTTS at 2.8 on the Betfair Exchange. Elche have scored in 11 of their last 12 La Liga matches, and they put two goals past Madrid in the reverse fixture. They also found the net in both of their league matches against Barcelona.

Lorient v Lens - Visitors to blow their big chance

Saturday 14 March, 16:00Live on Ligue 1 Pass

It is remarkable that Lens are still in the Ligue 1 title race, and a victory at Lorient would put them back on top, with leaders PSG given the weekend off to focus on their Champions League tie against Chelsea. Lens were expected to struggle this term, but former Lyon coach Pierre Sage has done a phenomenal job.

However, I think Lens can be opposed here. Lens have slipped up recently at Marseille (lost 3-1) and Strasbourg (drew 1-1) and I think they'll find beating Lorient tougher than the market expects. Olivier Pantaloni's team are on an extraordinary run, having lost just one of their last 14 matches in the top division. At the Stade du Moustoir, Lorient haven't lost since August, and since then they have won five and drawn five.

With Lorient safe in mid-table, all of the pressure is on Lens here, and I'll lay the visitors at 1.87.

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich - In-form Olise can strike

Saturday 14 March, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich both impressed in the Champions League this week, but in different ways. Leverkusen held tournament favourites Arsenal to a 1-1 draw at the BayArena, and would've won had it not been for the clumsy concession of a late penalty. Kasper Hjulmand's side played with surprising cohesion in defence, and they moved the ball quickly in attack, with young striker Christian Kofane catching the eye.

While Leverkusen's last-16 tie is in the balance as they prepare to visit the Emirates, Bayern's is over after they demolished Atalanta 6-1 in Bergamo. Michael Olise scored two wonderful goals as the Serie A side were sliced and diced, even though Harry Kane was out injured. Injuries to Alphonso Davies and Manuel Neuer were the only blots on the copybook on an incredible night for the Bundesliga leaders.

It's Olise I want to focus on here. Regular readers of the column will know that I often put him up as a potential goalscorer, and that's usually based on the fact I think his price is just too big. The French international has 35 goals in 92 Bayern games, and he has rattled in ten Bundesliga goals this term.

Leverkusen will have been boosted by their performance against Arsenal, but they lost 3-0 at Bayern earlier in the campaign, and they have been short of their best since the turn of the year. Die Werkself shipped three goals at Freiburg last weekend, and we are talking about a Bayern team that has rattled in 92 league goals already, just nine short of equaling the all-time scoring record for a Bundesliga campaign.

to score at 2.98.