Leeds relegation chances now clear as Tottenham, Nott’m Forest, West Ham learn point-by-point survival guide | OneFootball

Leeds relegation chances now clear as Tottenham, Nott’m Forest, West Ham learn point-by-point survival guide | OneFootball

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·13 April 2026

Leeds relegation chances now clear as Tottenham, Nott’m Forest, West Ham learn point-by-point survival guide

Article image:Leeds relegation chances now clear as Tottenham, Nott’m Forest, West Ham learn point-by-point survival guide

Leeds United have put Premier League survival very much in their own hands after a monumental victory at Manchester United on Monday night, with a delve into the history books showing exactly what they, West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur must all do to avoid relegation.

The fight to stay in the Premier League looks poised to go down to the wire, though Leeds took a giant leap towards safety thanks to a superb 2-1 win at Old Trafford, secured by two first-half goals from Noah Okafor. That win puts the Whites six points clear of danger and, with a home date to come against basement boys Wolves, before Spurs even play next, the West Yorkshire side looked very well placed to book their place among the elite next season.


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However, while Wolves and Burnley both looked doomed to be playing Championship football next season, it remains uncertain which of four sides, including Leeds, will join them in the second tier.

Indeed, Tottenham, currently on 30 points, look most vulnerable and desperately need a win over Brighton to bolster their hopes.

But they won’t find it easy to rein in those in and around them…

West Ham also did their hopes the power of good with a thumping 4-0 win over Wolves on Friday to move out of the drop zone, while Nottingham Forest picked up a battling point at home to Aston Villa.

Now, a dive into the history books shows exactly what each club’s chances of survival are and depending on the points tally they finish on.

33 points: Clubs that finish on 33 points for the season would have just a 13.33% chance of survival, with that tally enough to avoid the drop in just four of the last 30 Premier League seasons.

34 points: Clubs that finish on 34 points have just a 30% chance of survival, with that tally enough to avoid the drop in nine of the last 30 Premier League seasons.

35 points: A 35-point haul for the season historically gives sides a 53.33% of survival, with that tally enough in 16 of the last 30 seasons.

36 points: That tally has been enough in 18 of 30 Premier League seasons, giving sides a 60% chance of survival.

37 points: A 37-point haul gives sides a 76.66% of survival, with that tally being enough in 23 of 30 Premier League seasons.

38 points: That tally delivers a 80% chance of survival, having been enough to stay afloat in 24 of the last 30 Premier League seasons.

39 points: A tally that has delivered survival in 26 of 30 Premier League seasons, giving clubs reaching that mark a 86.67% chance of staying up.

40 points: Heralded as the magical mark for good reason, teams who reach 40 points ensure a 90% chance of survival, with that tally being enough in 27 of the last 30 seasons.

41-42 points: Finishing with either gives teams a 96.67% chance of staying up. That has secured safety in 29 of 30 seasons.

43 points-plus: No team has ever been relegated after amassing 43 points or more, giving teams, historically, a 100% chance of survival.

‘Brilliant’ Farke earns rare Roy Keane praise; Carragher turns on Tottenham

Meanwhile, Roy Keane has hailed the job Daniel Farke has done as Leeds United manager following their historic 2-1 win at Manchester United on Monday night, while the German himself was quick to remind his players to “stay humble” in the wake of the victory.

Elsewhere, a fuming Jamie O’Hara has now accepted Spurs will probably go down, fearing new manager Roberto De Zerbi is not a miracle worker and claiming that the team are carrying several “shocking” stars and naming five of them who he rates as simply not good enough.

At the same time, Jamie Carragher has delivered a relegation verdict on Spurs that will leave their supporters feeling sick as a first demotion from the top flight since 1977 looms large.

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