Leeds United ramp 99% optimism up to 100 with scrappy Nottingham Forest win | OneFootball

Anyone tuning into the highlights looking for evidence of Leeds United’s new golden era might come away slightly disappointed by the nature of their scabby, thoroughly unglamorous 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest.

Scintillating it wasn’t. But a win’s a win and this was exactly why the mood music at Elland Road is so hopeful right now. Daniel Farke’s Big B*stards FC are a bitch to play against.

The first half was honking as a spectacle. It was balanced and hard-fought enough, both sides defending competently, but neither had registered more than 0.2xG or created anything resembling a clear chance.

It livened up as the second half progressed, with chances arriving at both ends, but the longer it went on, the more inevitable a goalless draw seemed.

That was until Nikola Milenkovic gifted Leeds a free-kick in a promising position. Anton Stach took advantage, whipping it past Matz Sels, who really ought to have done better. Stach won’t be losing any sleep over that — only Dominik Szoboszlai has matched his tally of direct free-kicks since his move to Leeds last summer.

It was actually a dismal performance in a 3-1 defeat at the City Ground last November that prompted reports Daniel Farke’s job was hanging by a thread. A short while later he switched to a back three and never looked back.

Leeds were largely excellent after Farke’s tactical masterstroke. Almost always a tough opponent, comfortably mid-table in terms of results.

But there was always room for improvement. Even after the uptick, they only actually won four of 18 matches between the start of December and end of March. They remained firmly in the relegation picture until finally streaking away in the run-in.

Farke’s men only managed two away wins all season, leaving them 18th, worse than West Ham, in the Premier League’s away table.

They drew nine of their 19 games on the road — more than any other side — which underlines how competitive they generally were, but they need to convert some of those draws into wins if they are to push on for a top-half finish.

Then there’s the clean sheet column, where Leeds were also some way short of where they need to be. They kept only eight all season, the fewest of any surviving team.

Leeds were generally well organised at the back, but lapses repeatedly proved their undoing. Had they turned a few of those 1-1 draws into narrow victories, they could have finished much higher.

The underlying metrics suggest that wouldn’t have been an unreasonable outcome, either. Leeds came out considerably better than Sunderland on expected points, with those fine margins ultimately the difference between their 14th place and European qualification.

So the optimism is not unfounded. Keep up those levels and come on the right side of the margins – whereby summer additions like James Trafford, Harry Wilson and Tarek Muharemovic ought to help – and a top-half finish is not at all unrealistic.

Farke won’t be getting carried away just yet, and you get the feeling he was mindful of the fact Leeds fans topped The Athletic’s 2026-27 ‘Hope-O-Meter’ with a 99% optimism rating when he tried to take down the temperature in his pre-match press conference.

“We believe that in the mid and long term, James can be unbelievable for us,” Farke had told reporters.

“But he comes from a season where he has not really played much, so it would be unfair to expect right now he plays way better than Karl [Darlow].

“The same with Struijk, Tarik [Muharemovic] heads into this first season in English football, and I’m realistic. I know it doesn’t work like on the PlayStation.”

Farke can try all he likes to bring Leeds fans back down to earth, but they’re not going to ignore what they’ve seen with their own eyes. An excellent pre-season was no fluke.

Wilson was a tad underwhelming on his competitive debut, with a frustrating tendency to drift offside, particularly a flagged-off opener. But the other summer signings were magnificent, shutting the hosts out and giving them precious little to work with.

Trafford made a great save to deny a goalbound Igor Jesus header early doors, while late on Muharemovic made a vital last-gasp challenge on Chris Wood and came close to scoring at the other end.

These are exactly the steps that Leeds are looking to build on the solid foundations of last season. Clean sheet? Away win? Winning in the margins? Check, check, check.