Leeds United’s 8 Key Battles To Win vs Chelsea And Extra Added Factor | OneFootball

Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

Leeds United stand on the brink of writing another page in the club’s illustrious history if they can get past Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley on Sunday.

Despite Chelsea’s troubles, Leeds will go into the clash as underdogs, with the Blues’ individual quality meaning many still see them stopping the Whites’ cup run and sending Daniel Farke’s side back to Yorkshire disappointed.

Leeds though have proven they can get the better of big Premier League sides this season and only recently went to Manchester United, where they came away with an impressive 2-1 win, their spirit hugely impressing one former Whites star.

To beat Chelsea, with extra uncertainty at the Blues following a managerial change, Leeds will need to make sure they come out on top in a series of key mini-battles all across the Wembley turf.

We assess the eight key battles and the additional mental factor which will likely be key in deciding which team book a spot in the FA Cup final.

1. Dominic Calvert-Lewin vs Trevoh Chalobah

Calvert-Lewin has terrorised many a defence this season, but he will be itching to go against a Chelsea side that have gone 12 games without a clean sheet in the Premier League, the club’s longest such run since 1997.

All is also seemingly not well in terms of player-manager relationships at Chelsea. Liam Rosenior put the loss to Brighton down to hunger, saying ‘tonight was not about tactics, it was about desire’ but Chalobah was on a different page, stating ‘I thought personally that the boys were running their socks off. Everyone in the changing room is tired. It’s nothing to do with effort. We gave it our all, we just got beat today.’ While Rosenior has been sacked, Chalobah’s statement does not garner any confidence in the player, with many neutrals tending to agree with the departed manager.

Calvert-Lewin, visibly high on confidence will see this as another weakness to exploit, and having scored in six consecutive games in November and December, with Chelsea the second opponents in that run, he will hope to ignite another goal-scoring streak to further his World Cup chances, having scored against Wolves before the Bournemouth fixture.

2. Lukas Nmecha vs Wesley Fofana

Leeds’ turning point for the season was arguably the win against Chelsea in December, when Farke started with three at the back for the first time. After testing it against Manchester City in the second half, Farke settled on the formation permanently after the Chelsea game, with Calvert-Lewin and Nmecha’s play contributing no small part to their manager’s decision.

Calvert-Lewin and Nmecha dovetailed beautifully, with the former no longer isolated up front, to cause Chelsea problems throughout. Defenders could no longer double up on Calvert-Lewin, with either player capable of winning aerial duels and playing on flick-ons for their partner, or bringing others into the game.

Despite calls for the pair to be unleashed together, Farke has mostly resisted fielding them together since, mostly due to a preference to defend in a 5-4-1 rather than a 5-3-2 and nudged along due to their injury records, but he will be cognisant of the fact that Chelsea lost 80 per cent of the duels they attempted against the Seagulls and did not win a single header.

Another reason to start Nmecha would be that the 5-3-2 formation would actually be a good defensive setup to play against Chelsea, with Robert Sanchez and the backline prone to errors. Indeed, Sanchez needed Caicedo to bail him out against Brighton while Calvert-Lewin benefitted from a Tosin Adarabioyo mistake in December when the Blues tried to play out from the back.

Fofana is another player who is not in the best of mental states, having had to apologise for his reaction to being subbed off against Manchester United and taken off at half-time against Brighton, and Farke would undoubtedly want his attacking pair to gang up on the hapless Chelsea centre-half rather than the Blues centre-back pairing doubling up on Calvert-Lewin.

Ferdi Kadioglu’s early goal showed how quickly shoulders can drop and starting Nmecha alongside Calvert-Lewin might be the key for Farke to achieve the same for Leeds.

3. Noah Okafor vs Malo Gusto

Okafor has been praised for being ‘head and shoulders above’ the rest of his Leeds United team-mates, just in terms of quality and for good measure. Okafor had five goals in five appearances prior to a 60-odd minute run out against Bournemouth, along with an assist against Wolves. Okafor will be key during counters and transitions, as well as in pegging back Gusto, who has become a regular in the absence of Reece James.

Gusto is reportedly looking for a pay raise and accordingly might try to do it all on his own. Okafor should be at hand to punish any tactical indiscipline on the part of Gusto.

4. Anton Stach vs Enzo Fernandez

Farke is giving Stach every chance to seal a return for Leeds and if the German is available, he will be key in winning the midfield battle. Not only has Stach proven crucial in defence through his recoveries, tackling and interceptions, as well as his strong aerial presence, he has also been vital during attacking transitions, setting off counters, with Leeds legend Stuart Dallas lauding his ball carrying abilities.

Stach can also prove to be important as a corner kick taker, with Leeds centre-backs making a nuisance of themselves in the Chelsea box, and his prowess from free kicks does not need to be repeated here, with his manager having previously described him as a potent set-piece specialist.

Having been played in a more advanced role recently, Fernandez has found patches of form as an attacking midfielder. Stach could peg the Argentinian back by advancing himself, simultaneously cutting off the supply line to Chelsea’s attackers.

5. Ao Tanaka vs Moises Caicedo

Chelsea have been outrun by their opponents in every single Premier League match so far this season, 34 out of 34, with no other side being outrun more than 29 times. They remain anchored at the bottom of the distance run per game table, with an average of 106.1 km, two kilometres less than 19th-placed Nottingham Forest in that statistic.

The tireless Tanaka can literally and figuratively run Chelsea ragged on Sunday, with his movement creating space and opportunities for his teammates, concurrently and deferred, as the Blues tire.

Caicedo, who has seen his workload increase after playing as a single pivot rather than in a double pivot, will need to be measured in his actions to conserve energy, with his teammates bringing down the average of running statistics.

6. Pedro Neto/Estevao vs Gabriel Gudmundsson

Neto and Estevao are both rare Chelsea attackers who can make something happen. They are also equally likely to frustrate as they are to delight, with their output capricious by the minute.

As with any mercurial player, what might make them a dud on the day is also what adds to their threat, with their ineffectiveness up to that point lulling opponents into a false sense of confidence.

Neto also seems to be short of confidence, in himself and his side, which was best illustrated when he ignored Rosenior’s advice to take on Pascal Gross, who, for all his gifts, cannot count speed among them, when he found himself 1v1 on the halfway line.

Gudmundsson, who shone during the December clash against the Blues at Elland Road, will do well to maintain his attacking forays while staying switched on defensively at the same time.

7. Joao Pedro vs Leeds United’s back three

Pedro was a constant menace during the 2-2 draw, occupying half-spaces and making probing run after run between any pairing of Leeds’ back three. Pedro opened the scoring, had Jaka Bijol in enough of a dizzy to make the defender push him over in the box to win a penalty, and saw a header crash off the crossbar in the closing stages.

Pedro though, like any other player, will need support, as he did on that day from Cole Palmer. Leeds’ back three, and the team as a whole, might be best served by cutting off the supply line to Pedro.

The back three could also focus on pushing Pedro’s runs wide and away from the danger area, while also being wary of any through passes he attempts after dragging them out of shape. Doubling up on Pedro might also prove to be a fruitful trade-off.

8. Daniel Farke vs Calum McFarlane

Farke in all likelihood would have expected to come up against Rosenior, but the Leeds boss will have to greet McFarlane in the dugout on Sunday, though the general principles for the clash still hold greatly.

With Chelsea on a run of five consecutive losses without scoring, their worst in 114 years, Farke will seriously need to consider taking the game to Chelsea with an attacking bias, rather than the balanced or defensive approach he has begun games with.

Farke might have already missed a trick, and this is not coming from the benefit of hindsight, by not rotating his starting line-up against Bournemouth for a single point.

It might be prudent to bombard a Chelsea side who can neither score nor keep goals out, as the 16-0 record against them, considering only top division opponents. since Fernandez scored in the first leg against Paris Saint-Germain, duly illustrates.

But we will gladly eat humble pie if Farke once again manages to achieve his targets with his own methods and logic.

Added Factor: Mental State

Chelsea have been in disarray, beginning with team leaks hours before the game, and ending with post-match comments from players, at odds with the manager and statistics.

Rifts have turned from a crack to a gaping chasm and now to a complete severance, with Rosenior dismissed with more than five years remaining on the five-and-a-half-year deal he signed with Chelsea.

Since Rosenior’s appointment, Leeds have gathered a point more than Chelsea, who have accumulated 17 points, with the Whites possessing a better goal difference.

More importantly, the arc for Leeds has been on an upward trajectory, giving them more momentum and a sense of having something to play for.

When Leeds beat Chelsea in December, Farke was under pressure and Chelsea were in the conversation as title challengers. The draw in February ended Rosenior’s four-match winning start while solidifying their own chances of safety.

The FA Cup holds special prominence for Leeds, with the Whites not having been in a semi-final since 1987. They have also won it only once in their history, and for a just-promoted side that have almost secured safety, hitting the 40-point mark with the Bournemouth draw, battling the odds and recent history, there can be no trophy that glitters more than the FA Cup.

For Chelsea, who since Roman Abramovich’s takeover have found money and success easier to come by, it might feel like a consolation prize without a strong season in the Premier League and Europe.

The Blues probably cannot wait for the season to end, a reality underlined by their statistics against Brighton. Of the seven tackles they attempted, Chelsea won the ball back only on three occasions, the lowest return in the league this season, despite enjoying less possession than the Seagulls. The Blues also failed to record a single shot on target.

If they are hoping for a new manager bounce with McFarlane, he is not exactly a new manager, having taken over as interim after Enzo Maresca was let go, registering a draw against Manchester City and a loss to Fulham.

In any case, it is a nigh on impossible ask to motivate players in such a short time, while statistics like their running and the broader identity of the team will need to be carefully reshaped over time.

Brighton’s Kadioglu told Sky Sports: “We knew from the beginning that we have to play hard. Chelsea have good players. If you are tight with them, they can’t do much. I think we did that amazing”, giving Leeds an indirect piece of advice.

Attacking Chelsea physically and psychologically might be the easiest way to dismantle a side on their haunches, with Jon Newsome and Craig Burley sensing a Whites victory over a wobbling Chelsea side to book their place in the final, and if Farke has any doubt regarding the importance of the fixture, Leeds fans will vociferously clarify it at Wembley.