Leeds v West Ham: 40/1 defender offers Friday night value | OneFootball

English Premier League

Leeds v West Ham tips

Leeds need home wins to stay in the top-flight and they can ceertainly gain one against woeful West Ham on Friday night, says Dave Tindall...

Whites need to strengthen home form

If Leeds are to survive this season, Elland Road really does need to do much of the heavy lifting when it comes to accumulating points.

Daniel Farke's side certainly turned it into a fortress in their Championship-topping campaign last season, winning 18 and drawing four of their 23 home games.

There's perhaps a perception they're doing quite well in front of their own fans again this term but one win, two draws and a defeat with just four goals scored (four conceded) needs to improve if Leeds are to avoid a relegation scrap.

Ahead of Friday night's game they sit 16th, three points clear of the drop zone. Their results at home so far: a 1-0 win over Everton, a 0-0 stalemate with Newcastle, a 2-2 draw with Bournemouth and a 2-1 loss to Spurs.

Hammers in a rut

It's hard to get across just how abysmal West Ham were in the 2-0 home defeat against Brentford on Monday night. Had the Bees played with former striker Ivan Toney up front it could have easily been five or six.

After watching Ange Postecoglou fail to get any sort of new manager bounce at Nottingham Forest, to the point where the Australian was sacked, Nuno Espirito Santo has also had no instant impact at West Ham after departing the City Ground.

Okay, there was nothing wrong in losing 2-0 to leaders Arsenal but that performance against Brentford was shockingly bad, leaving West Ham second bottom with just four points.

Add in the League Cup and West Ham have lost seven of their nine fixtures this season. Their one win came against third-bottom Forest.

Leeds odds-on to beat West Ham

Leeds won't find themselves odds-on to win a Premier League match many times this season but, due to West Ham's woeful start, that's the case here.

The market shows Leeds at 5/6, with West Ham 10/3 and The Draw 12/5.

And yet, on current form, Leeds have to be of interest. West Ham have been slightly better away from home but they've already lost 3-0 at Sunderland and 2-0 at the Emirates.

Therefore, in front of a packed and lively late-night Elland Road crowd, I'll take the hosts to win this one to nil at 21/10. Leeds have kept clean sheets against both Everton and Newcastle and the Hammers have scored just six times in their eight matches.

True, Leeds have conceded a few but only Arsenal, Newcastle and Manchester City rank better than the Whites for Expected Goals Conceded.

And it must only help the home cause that West Ham are playing Monday-Friday, giving new boss Nuno less time to implement his ideas.

Rodon value against set-piece strugglers

West Ham have conceded more goals than any other Premier League side this season. And eight of those 18 have come from set-pieces.

So for those looking for a bit of Friday night value, those numbers give scope for a first scorer punt on Leeds defender Joe Rodon.

The centre-back headed home in the 2-2 draw with Bournemouth (second goal of the game) and then powered home an early header to give Wales the lead in their 4-2 home loss against Belgium.

Between those two matches, he also snuck round the back of the Tottenham defence to head against the woodwork with the score still 0-0 in Leeds' last home game. Finally, the 6ft 4in defender is getting the goals his height and aerial ability would suggest.