Lewis Jones Notebook: Why 2/1 Arsenal will keep drifting for Premier League title | OneFootball

English Premier League

Do the Gunners have too many negatives to become Premier League champions?

Lewis Jones has questioned Arsenal's mentality and whether they are too short in the betting when it comes to being a serious title challenger this season...

Liverpool take control of outright market

The Premier League winner market is going to be a fascinating beast to analyse this season. Just three weeks in and we've already had flip flopping favourites.

Liverpool started the campaign as the most likely winners but despite going two-for-two their performances were underwhelming, so much so that it led to Arsenal grabbing the favourites crowd ahead of the meeting between the teams at Anfield on Sunday.

That subsequent 1-0 win for Arne Slot's men, courtesy of a pulsating winning goal from Dominik Szoboszlai, triggered another shift in the outright market with Liverpool shortening into 2.62 on the Betfair Exchange having been as big as 3.5 last week.

It did feel a potentially pivotal early season move for Liverpool. Not because of their overall performance - yet again they were quite stodgy and passive in their output - but more because of the same old issues shown by Arsenal when it comes to playing a big game where the stakes are high.

There has been an argument that this Arsenal side have "grown up" and made decisive enough moves in the transfer market to turn Mikel Arteta's side from the nearly men to the winning men.

But when it really matters, under the lights, with the pressure on, do they truly deliver?

Under Arteta, the Gunners have now failed to win away at Liverpool, Manchester City or Chelsea in their last 10 attempts, drawing seven of those.

When the margins are razor thin at the top, games like the one on Sunday are the games that decide titles. In contrast, Liverpool have collected nine crucial points from as if it were business as usual without even playing anywhere near their optimum. Arsenal, on the other hand, flinched. Again.

Arteta's tactical rigidity in those fixtures - particularly away from home - continues to bite. His side play with structure and control, yes, but that control often becomes sterile and has led to far too many draws in these monster matches.

At Anfield they really struggled to create from open play. There was a feeling that signing Viktor Gyokeres would solve all their issues but Arsenal's problem isn't finishing, it's creating.

Gyokeres failed to have a single shot in the 1-0 defeat to Liverpool as the Gunners mustered just 0.54 worth of expected goals. It looked like nothing has changed from last season where they created on average just 1.13 expected goals per game from open play - only the seventh highest in the Premier League.

Dropping like flies - why so many injuries?

Arsenal's physical fragility is a huge red flag, too, when assessing their title credentials at the current odds.

Squad depth has improved but when you're chasing teams like Liverpool, you need to guarantee continuity in key positions. Arsenal can't. They didn't last season, and early signs suggest this year might be déjà vu. Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and William Saliba have already missed key minutes this season due to injury issues.

Arsenal still look a few gears below the Liverpool machine, and even Chelsea might even leapfrog them if things click at Stamford Bridge. They are a team that have shown a mentality required to win big games when the pressure is turned on.

Arsenal are close. But close doesn't win titles. Until they conquer the big games, keep players fit, and find a real cutting edge, they're going to continue to be a nearly team.

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Recommended bets

Lay Arsenal to win the Premier League @ 2.92