Liverpool v Aston Villa: Back Cody Gakpo to shine in home win | OneFootball

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Liverpool v Aston VillaSaturday 1 November, 20:00

Will Slot's midweek call be vindicated?

Arne Slot pushed the chips into the middle of the poker table by deciding to name a much changed team for the midweek Carabao Cup defeat to Crystal Palace.

It means Liverpool head into this fixture on the back of five straight domestic defeats. Slot opted to leave star players such as Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk out of his squad, made 10 changes to his starting XI from the previous game at Brentford and filled his bench with inexperienced youngsters.

As Liverpool head into a pivotal run of games - fixtures with Real Madrid and Manchester City follow this one - Slot has decided to endure more short-term pain with that Palace defeat to prioritise these next fixtures.

And history suggests trusting Slot to get it right at a time where the narrative is portraying him as someone who is out of his depth could be a profitable move.

Because if the title-winning campaign taught us anything, it's that Slot knows how to manage chaos, rotate wisely and keep his squad peaking while others run out of steam.

When Liverpool lifted the Premier League trophy last season, it wasn't just about tactics and in-game substitutions. It was about player management.

Slot got the blend between rotation and rhythm spot-on. He trusted his fringe players and made brave calls in the league that left his stars fresh for the big days. And this is a big day against Villa.

And Slot knows it, hence why he's sacrificed the Carabao Cup to reboot his key players. It's the product of a manager who understands when to gamble and when to protect. Slot and his backroom staff's biggest strength is the way they manage squads to preserve them to minimize the chances of injury.

And let's not forget, Liverpool have lost just three of their last 54 Premier League home games since November 2022.

Yes, they find themselves in a very tough run of form but Slot's attack has still been running very hot in terms of chance creation, racking up a per 90 expected goals tally of 2.2 in their four Premier League defeats. Based on the metrics, this is a team doing more than enough to win football matches still in the Premier League.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa don't often fare well away at the top teams.

Last season, they picked up just one point and five defeats against top seven finishers, conceding two goals or more in each of those. Unai Emery has got a rotten record against the Reds too, failing to win in the last 12 meetings, including losing the last two meetings at Anfield without scoring.

Liverpool's average starting odds at Anfield last season averaged out at 1.38 yet we can get 1.67 on the Betfair Exchange here. In a game which Slot has clearly focused his week around, that feels a generous price on the home team.

Gakpo becoming the main man for Slot

With confidence high about Liverpool ending their winless run, it makes sense to add their most dangerous player into the mix to grab an assist or a goal.

All the scrutiny on Alexander Isak, Mohamed Salah and Florian Wirtz at Liverpool has taken the limelight away from Cody Gakpo, who is quietly stealing the show this season in the Liverpool attack.

He's the first name on the teamsheet and has scored in three of his last four games as the consistency in his game now is an underrated aspect of how Slot's team go about their business in the final third.

Gakpo is also a big creative force for Liverpool - only Jack Grealish has created more chances from open play this season in the Premier League. The Dutchman has been a thorn for Villa before too having grabbed a goal involvement in both his starts against Emery's men.

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